This research is a cross-discipline assortment of scientific studies that are brought together in order to determine if there are significant relationships between the tree-ring climate model and precipitation distribution (specifically North America and Mexico tidal and air movements), in an attempt, to better understand natural climate change.  These tidal and air movements have several different names such as Quasi-Biennial Stratospheric Oscillation (QBO), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and modulating Tidal Resonance (TR).  The empirical data obtained from these different factors suggest a correlation for natural climate change with crests and troughs over thousands of years.   

 

The tree-ring studies were taken from various states within the United States and Mexico. 

 

Culture and social processes in relation to changing climate were also taken into consideration.  Three figures are provided to show correlation between climate and physical environment changes with cultural history.

 

 

 

Southwest Climate and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation,

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Arctic

Oscillation and Tidal Resonance

 

 

Thor Karlstrom

 

Abstract

 

 

            Southwest instrumental and tree ring precipitation records are analyzed to further             test regional responses to atmospheric circulation systems:  the Quasi-Biennial            Oscillation (AO) and modulating Tidal Resonance (TR).  Winter precipitation      from Pacific sources dominate the climate of the west part of the Southwest;    summer precipitation primarily from the Gulf of Mexico dominates that of the      eastern sector.  Half-cycle analyses of additional tree ring records from the US,            Mexico, and South America continue to reveal differing response functions to        harmonic elements of the TR model.  Some phase with the 278-year sub-phase        cycle or to higher frequency components of the model.  The QBO, SO, and             Southwest precipitation phase most strongly with the 120/1 (2.3-year) resonance,            but show little correlation with the AO and El Nino years.  High resolution           records of culture from the US, Southwest, Egypt, and Iceland appear to directly reflect changes in climate and the physical environment.  Correlations of the     Iceland and other pale climatic records with Resonance and Sunspots strengthen    the empirical basis for linking climatic change to tidal and solar activity.

 

Introduction

 

Southwest instrumental precipitation records and more widely spaced tree ring-precipitation records are analyzed to further test regional responses to atmospheric circulation systems, including the Quasi-Biennial Stratospheric Oscillation (QBO), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and modulating Tidal Resonance (TR).

 

Analytical procedures used in this and previous papers emphasize half-cycle smoothing with temporal placements on theoretical cycle turning points to test for their presence.  It is assumed that because of variable amounts of non-climatic noise in most climate time series, 70% or more matching of trends represent significant coefficients of correlation for those cycles identified within parentheses by wavelength in years, such as R = 0.83 (278).  As a first approximation it is further assumed that cycle turning points, as defined by sinusoidal trends, are positioned on maximum and minimum values (respectively crests and troughs). 

 

 

Regional Distribution of Southwest Precipitation, Seasons and Primary Sources

 

Winter precipitation from Pacific sources dominate the climate of the western sector of the Southwest.  Summer precipitation primarily from Gulf of Mexico sources dominate that of the eastern sector.  Precipitation generally increases and temperature decreases with increasing elevations ranging regionally from sea level to over 14,000 feet.  Regional precipitation gradients and elevation relations along S-N, W-E, and SW-NE profiles across the central and eastern part of the Southwest are shown in Figures 1, 2, and 3.

 

Tree Ring Precipitation Records and the TR Climate Model

 

Half-cycle analyses of additional tree-ring records continue to reveal differing response functions to elements of the TR Climate Model.  These differences are evidently dependent on site location in relation to changing regional circulation patterns or to differing physiological sensitivities and signal/noise ratios.  Some tree-ring records phase predominantly with the 278-year Sub-phase Cycle; others predominantly with one or more of the higher frequency sub harmonics including the 2/1 (139-year) Event Cycle, the 4/1 (69.5-year) Sub-event Cycle, the 8/1 (34.8-year) Bruckner Cycle, and the 12/1 (23.2-year) Hale Cycle.

 

Tree-ring records from Arkansas (Figure 5), Texas (Figure 10), Mexico (Figure 11) and South America (Figure 13) phase predominantly with the Sub-phase Cycle.  Others from Colorado (Figure 6), New Mexico (Figure 8), and Mexico (Figure 9) phase predominantly with the Event Cycle.  The remainder, one from Utah (Figure 4), one from Colorado (Figure 7) and one from Mexico (Figure 12), show no significant positive correlations with the above elements of the Resonance Climate Model.

 

For comparison, the original tree-ring evidence for the Event Cycle is shown in Figure 14 and for the Sub-event cycle in Figure 15.

 

Correlations between the QBO, ENSO, AO, TR, and Southwest Precipitation

 

Figure 16 shows levels of correlation for QBO, SO, El Nino, and TR.  At these higher frequencies, the QBO phases most strongly with the 60/1 (2.3-year) resonance of the Event Cycle.  In turn, it correlates more weakly but significantly with the SO.  In contrast, the El Nino series correlates poorly with the SO, suggesting factors other than tropical air pressure and ocean temperatures are involved (see discussion in Karlstrom 1996).

 

Figure 17 shows averaged precipitation for the main watersheds of the Colorado Plateaus along with a regional average.  The regional average correlates weakly but apparently significantly with the 60/1 (2.3-year) resonance of the 139-year Event Cycle.

 

As shown in Figure 18, no significant correlations are evident between the AO, QBO, ENSO and instrumental regional precipitation records.  This is consistent with other analyses of Southwest climate and hydrology that also indicate great spatial and even-to-event variability in regional responses to El Nino years that seriously compromise the use of El Nino (and alternating La Nina) recurrence patterns in predicting future trends.  In fact the presented data indicate that the Resonance Climate Model may better serve as a predictive basis for estimating future long-and-short term climatic trends in the Southwest.

 

Culture, Social Process and Climate

 

A central theme of this 1999 Paclim Workshop is the possible influence of climate on social process and culture.  Thus, I add three figures that correlate climate and physical environmental changes with cultural history.  Figure 19, based on more than 20 years of multidisciplinary research in the Black Mesa region, correlates precipitation and hydrology reflecting the 139-year Event Cycle with southwest cultural changes in a semiarid region where moisture is the dominant limiting subsistence factor.  Figure 20 correlates the long Egyptian dynastic history with the same event cycle that apparently affected Nile flood levels and therefore the dominant socioeconomic base of this culture.  Figure 21 correlates Iceland history with limiting temperature changes inferred from changing shoreline ice conditions.  Finally, Figure 22 correlates Iceland’s record of temperature with Sunspots (Friis-Christensen and Lassen 1991) and with harmonic elements of the TR Model.  Figure 22 includes two other pale climatic records (one a marine record, the other a tree ring isotope-temperature record) that also correlate well with the TR Model and Sunspots and which; therefore, substantially contribute to the empirical base for linking solar and tidal activity to climatic change.   

 

References

 

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Friis-Christensen E, Lassen K. 1991.  Length of solar cycle:  an indicator of solar activity          closely associated with climate.  Science 254:  698-700.

 

Fritts HC. 1967.  Tree-ring analysis (dendroclimatology).  In:  Fiarbridge R, editor.  The          encyclopedia of atmospheric sciences and astrogeology.  New York:  Reinhold. P        1008-26.

 

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Karlstrom TNV. 1976a.  Stratigraphy and pale climate of the Black Mesa Basin.  US     Geological Survey Circular 778:  18-22.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1976b.  Quaternary and upper Tertiary time-stratigraphy of the Colorado        Plateaus, continental correlations and some pale climatic implications.  In:      Mahany WC, editor.  Quaternary stratigraphy of North America.  Stroudsburg   (PA):  Bowden, Hutchinson and ross Inc. p 275-82.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1988.  Alluvial chronology and hydrologic change of Black Mesa and    nearby regions.  In:  Gumberman GJ, editor.  The Anasazi in a changing          environment.  School of American Research Advance Seminar Book, London:      Cambridge University Press, p 45-91.

 

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1995.  A 139-year dendroclimatic cycle, cultural/environmental history,            sunspots and longer term cycles.  In:  Isaacs CM, Tharp VI, editors.  Interagency       Ecological Program for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary Technical Report 40.             Proceedings of the 11^th annual Pacific climate (PACLIM) workshop; 1994 Apr      19-22, Asilornar, California.  Sacramento (CA):  California Department of Water            Resources, p 137-59.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1996.  The QBO, El Nino, and Tidal Resonance Model.  In:  Isaacs CM,        Tharp VI, editors.  Interagency Ecological Program for the Sacramento-San    Joaquin Estuary Technical Report 46.  Proceedings of the 12^th annual Pacific        climate (PACLIM) workshop, 1995 May 2-5, Asilomar, California, Sacramento       (CA):  California Department of Water Resources, p 241-53.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1997.  Addendum 1:  paleo-climate and the Solar-Insolation/Tidal         Resonance Climate Model.  In:  Isaacs CM, Tharp VI, editors.  Interagency     Ecological Program for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary Technical Report 53.             Proceedings of the 13^th annual Pacific climate (PACLIM) workshop; 1996 Apr      14-17, Asilomar, California.  Sacramento (CA):  California Department of Water            Resources, p 201-24d.

 

Pandolfi LJ, Kalil EK, Dodge PR, Levene LH, Libby LM. 1980.  Climate periods in trees            and a sea sediment core.  Radiocarbon 22: 749-55.

 

Richmond AJ Jr. 1987.  Historic precipitation sequences on the Colorado Plateaus, 1859-            1983 [Msc thesis].  Flagstaff:  Northern Arizona University.  203 p.

 

Schulman E. 1956.  Dendroclimatic changes in semiarid America.  Laboratory of Tree-    ring Research, University of Arizona.  Tucson (AZ):  University of Arizona Press.

 

Additional References

 

Dean JS, Robinson WJ. 1978.  Expanded tree-ring chronologies for the Southwest United            States.  Chronology Series III.  Laboratory of Tree-ring Research.  Tucson (AZ):      University of Arizona.  58 p.

 

Graumlisch LJ. 1992.  A 1000-year record of climatic variability in the Sierra Nevada,     California [handout].  Am. Quat. Association 12^th Biennial Meeting; 1992 Aug    24-26, Davis, CA.  University of California, Davis.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1955.  Late Pleistocene and recent glacial chronology of southcentral     Alaska [abstract].  Geol Soc Am Bull 66: 1906.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1956.  The Problem of the Cochrane in late Pleistocene chronology.  US          Geological Survey Bulletin 1021J: 303-31.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1961.  The glacial history of Alaska:  its bearing on pale climatic theory.         Annais New York Academy of Science 95: 290-340.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1964. Quaternary geology of the Kenai Lowland and glacial history of t  he Cook Inlet Region, Alaska. US Geological Survey Professional Paper 443, 69p.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1966.  Quaternary glacial record of the North Pacific region and             worldwide climatic change.  In:  Blumenstock DJ, editor.  Pleistocene and post-  Pleistocene climatic variations in the Pacific Area.  Honolulu:  Bishop Museum Press, p 153-82.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1975.  Cenozoic time-stratigraphy of Colorado Plateaus, continental     correlations and some pale climatic implications [handout].  Symposium on           Quaternary Stratigraphy; 1975 May, York University, Toronto.

 

Karlstrom TNV, Gumerman GJ, Euler RC. 1976.  Paleocenvironmental and cultural         correlates in the Black Mesa Region.  In:  Gumerman GJ, Euler RC, editors.  Papers on the archaeology of Black Mesa, Arizona.  Carbondale:  Southern         Illinois University Press, p 149-161.

 

LaMarche VC Jr. 1974.  Paleoclimatic inferences from long tree-ring records.  Science     183: 1043-8.

 

McGowan JA, Cayan DR, Dorman LM. 1998. Climate-ocean variability and ecosystem response in the northeast Pacific.  Science 281: 210-7.

 

Schulman E. 1945.  Tree-ring hydrology of the Colorado River basin.  Tree-Ring Bull 16:           22-38.

 

Scuderi LA.  1987.  Glacial variations in the Sierra Nevada, California, as related to a      1200 year tree-ring chronology.  Quat Research 27: 220-31.