The purpose of this paper is to draw conclusions about the cycles of temperature that affect our earth based on records obtained through fossils.  All throughout earth’s history, there have been markers left behind of great change on the surface of the earth.  From fossils to rock formations to craters, to the very position of the continents themselves, all of them have left a mark upon the landscape that can be traced back millions of years.  Even changes as subtle as temperature leave a mark upon a landscape that can be recorded and displayed in our present time.  These records give us a glimpse into the past that can show us what the temperature of our earth was like far before the introduction of humans and the chemicals we have created as a result of our modern society.  Drawing conclusions between the temperature as it was then and as it is now could help to determine if the current warming we are experiencing is something that is out of the norm for our planet, or if this warming is a natural precession of our planets ups and downs in temperature over the millennia.

            The first concept that must be understood are Milankovitch Climate Cycles.  A scientist named Milutin Milanković came up with a mathematical theory that suggested that the variations in the temperature on the surface of the earth could be linked to a variety of changes in the way that the earth moves around the sun.  It is generally understood that the earth is at a 23.5 degree tilt on it’s axis as it moves around the sun in a circular orbit.  This hasn’t always been the case however.  The orbit of the earth has different varying factors that change it’s proximity to the sun, which would have an adverse affect on the surface temperature, all the way from warming the planet globally to changing the duration of the seasons.

            The first of these factors would be the path that the earth takes as it orbits the sun.  If there were no planets other than the earth surrounding the sun, our path would remain in a perfect circle, orbiting the sun with no variation.  Since there are much bigger planets in our solar system however, we have learned that both Jupiter and Saturn have a pull on the path of our planet that affects our distance to the sun about every 100,000 years causing a cycle.

            The next is the tilt of the axis.  Although the axis of the earth is at around 23.5 degrees off center, that isn’t always the case.  The earth varies from a tilt of 22.1 to 24.5 degrees and back again every 41,000 years.  This increase in tilt has an effect on the amount of solar energy we absorb at a higher degree of tilt.  Since the Northern Hemisphere has more land mass, it absorbs more radiation, and when the tilt puts more of that land mass in a more direct path with the sun’s rays, we see an increase in global temperature.

            Axial Precession is the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars, meaning that the planet earth didn’t always point to the north star with it’s pole.  In a period of roughly 26,000 years this direction changes in relation to the earth’s location to the sun, and the effect of the moon’s gravity .  The motion, not unlike the spinning of a top when it starts to loose speed, is due to the tidal forces exerted by the sun and the moon on the solid Earth, associated with the fact that the Earth is an oblate spheroid shape and not a perfect sphere. The sun and moon contribute roughly equally to this effect.

            With all of these different effects taken into account, it is up to scientists to go out and find records of different forces upon the earth to support their theory.  In this paper, Dr. Thor Karlstrom uses climate proxy data collected by himself and others to support the Solar Insolation/Tidal Resonance Model of climate change.

            Figures 4-9 give examples of Northern Hemisphere climate records whose primary trends most closely parallel those of local insolation that varies based on latitude because of changing components.  Figures 11 and 12 give contrast by displaying Southern Hemisphere records that relate closely with the 180 degree opposite of their northern counterparts.  This displacement of summer solar insolation peaks and troughs across the equator approximately every 10,000 years.

            Figures 13-17 provide a pollen and organic-content record from Alaska and the Yukon Territory of Canada.  The records confirm the confirm the cyclical, (circular) patterns inferred from a glacial and bog chronostratigraphy.  This means that the area where the study was conducted has shown evidence of a change from a glacial covering to that of a bog within the time line cycles that support the original theories.

            Figures 19 and 20 use tree ring records to show that they represent the most accurately dated proxy climate time sequence, however they also vary in the amount of climatic information that they ultimately contain.  .  Numerous Southwest records from New Mexico to California define by half-cycle smoothing a robust 139-year Event Cycle (see Figure 19).  This Event Cycle is one-half of the Subphase Cycle (278 years), as defined by tidal bog chronostratigraphy (see Figure 13), tree rings (see Figure 20), historical record (see Figure 21), marine record (see Figure 22), as well as by statistical analyses of basal-contact (Point Boundary) dates (see Figures 13 and 19).  All these sources combine to give corroborating evidence that when compiled looks like it follows a time line of patterns that can be predicted in a very general sense.

 

No El Niño, But Variable Precessional Insolation, Antiphase Interhemispheric Climate Trends, and Globally Synchronous Secondary Cycles

 

Thor Karlstrom

US Geological Survey, retired

4811 SW Brace Point Drive

Seattle, WA 98136

 

Abstract

Additional time series, analyzed since the publication of my last paper (Karlstrom 1997), continue to support the Solar Insolation/Tidal Resonance Climate Model by recording latitudinal variability for longer-term climate trends, but globally-synchronous, shorter-term trends.

 

Introduction

Evaluation of marine and terrestrial climate records (Karlstrom 1955, 1956, 1961) suggested support for the Milankovitch Climate Model.  The probable distinction between the 20,000-year precessional insolation controls of lower latitudes and the 40,000-year obliquity insolation controls, operating synchronously in both polar regions, was emphasized.  In addition the highest resolution records then available suggested a harmonic series of smaller cycles (those with wavelengths of several thousands and fewer years) However, because of numerous geographic gaps (mainly in the Southern Hemisphere) and extant dating uncertainties, better geographic coverage and many more well-dated records were required to empirically validate and refine these conclusions.

 

Subsequent Work

 

class=Section3>

Since then, hundreds of dated climate time series have been published in the international literature.  Based largely on marine chronostratigraphy, most geologists by the 1970s had accepted the Milankovitch Climate Model and, along with this, the concept of inter hemispheric synchrony modulated solely by the obliquity-dominated, 60°N-60°N latitude solar insolation (Hays and others 1976; Martinson and others 1987).  Also by the 1970s, most researchers were correlating their terrestrial records with the “standard” marine record (Figure 1) on the assumption of global synchrony.  Some, however also produced a high-resolution glacial chronologies that correlate surprisingly well with dated sea level records (Richmond 1976; Terasmae and Dreimanis 1976) and with the precessionally-dominated, 45°N latitude insolation curve of the Milankovitch Model (Figure 2).  Since the early 1960s, I have analyzed scores of high-resolution proxy climate records dated by history, tree rings, varves, archaeology, radiocarbon, Th/U, and K/A (Karlstrom 1966, 1975, 1976, 1988, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998; Hevly and Karlstrom 1974; Euler and others 1979).  These records collectively support elements of both latitudinal variability (Figure 3) and high-frequency global synchrony (Figures 7, 12, 14, and 17).

 

Additional Supporting Records

This paper presents additional supporting records analyzed since my last paper (Figures 4-12, 15, 16, and 20), along with examples of previously published records to clarify cyclical context and regional correlations (Figures 1-3, 13, 14, 7-19, and 21-23).

 

Long-term Climate Trends and Interhemispheric Correlations

Figures 4 through 9 provide examples of Northern Hemisphere climate records whose primary trends most closely parallel those of local insolation that varies latitudinally because of changing precessional components.

 

By contrast, Figures and exemplify Southern Hemisphere records that most closely parallel local precessional insolation curves which trend 180 degrees out of phase with their Northern Hemisphere counterparts.  Temporal displacement of summer solar insolation peaks and troughs across the equator is approximately 10,000 years, or sufficiently large so that correlative antiphasing climatic trends should be distinguishable by using more accurate, current dating procedures.

 

Northwest Paleoclimatic Records: the Cook Inlet Glacial Chronology and Correlates

Figures 13 through 17 provide pollen and organic-content records from Alaska and the Yukon Territory, Canada.  These records essentially confirm the cyclical elements first inferred from glacial and bog chronostratigraphy in the Cook Inlet region of Alaska and as fortified by corroborative evidence from other parts of the Northern Hemisphere (see Figure 18).

 

Tree Ring Records, Higher Frequency Cycles, and Regional Patterns

Figures 19 and 20 show tree ring records that represent the most accurately dated proxy climate time series, however, they also vary appreciably in the amount of climatic information they contain (<50% to >90%).  Numerous Southwest records from New Mexico to California define by half-cycle smoothing a robust 139-year Event Cycle (see Figure 19).  This Event Cycle is one-half of the Subphase Cycle (278 years), as defined by tidal bog chronostratigraphy (see Figure 13), tree rings (see Figure 20), historical record (see Figure 21), marine record (see Figure 22), as well as by statistical analyses of basal-contact (Point Boundary) dates (see Figures 13 and 19).

 

The widespread occurrence of the Event Cycle suggests that it probably reflects the regional dynamics of Southwest atmospheric circulation patterns.  Thus, similar analyses of tree ring records in other regions may provide similar or differing patterns that may enhance understanding of overall circulation or differing biological responses.

 

To test this possibility, I have extended analyses to the longest of the tree ring records defined by numerical indices in Schulman (1956).  Localities of these records range from Canada to the Southwest and from Western to Midwestern states.  The resulting half-cycle patterns vary appreciably, but more than half show strong tendencies to phase with sub-harmonic elements of the Solar Insolation/ Tidal Resonance Climate Model (see Figure 20).

 

Whereas two records taken east of the southern Rocky Mountains phase strongly with the 139-year Event Cycle (or similar to the pattern defined west of the Southern Rocky Mountains), several of the records from more northern localities oscillate in phase with its half cycle 69.5 years, the Subevent Cycle.

 

By timing and duration, the Subevent Cycle is the same as the 70-year cycle recorded in global temperatures (Schlesinger and Ramankutty 1994) and as extended back into mid-Holocene by correlation with the dated beach sequence of northern Lake Michigan (Delcourt and others 1996).  The northerly distribution of this pattern suggests that it relates to the jet stream displacements and resulting dynamic of southward penetrating Arctic and Polar air masses.

 

Tidal/Sunspot/Climate Correlation

Finally, Figure 23 provides the strongest empirical evidence to date for an interrelated tidal and solar modulator of terrestrial climate.  Solar process is apparently related to both tidal process and climate by common phasing with the 3/1 (46.33 year) resonance of the Event Cycle and its double, the Gleissberg Cycle (92.67 years).

 

Summary

Additional time series presented in this paper continue to support the Solar Insolation/Tidal Resonance Climate Model and suggest explanations for both climate variability and climate synchrony of cycles ranging in wavelengths from tens of thousands of years to decades.  According to the model, there has been a natural cyclical trend toward increasing temperatures since the 1850s (see Figure 23).  Such a natural trend has not been considered by meteorological programmers who have assumed instead that the instrumentally recorded temperature rise since the industrial revolution results solely from man’s own progressive CO2 contamination of the atmosphere.  Thus, it is not clear how much of the recent “global warming” is man’s doing or the product of natural climatic process.  Unless this question is quantitatively resolved, simple projections of current short-term CO2 trends into the future remain uncertain.  Because of variability in recurrences (two to seven years), it is also unclear ow the El Niño seasonal (winter) phenomenon relates to the long-term climatic trends discussed above (see also Karlstrom 1996).

 

Figure 1

Two “standard” marine ice age chronologies on time scale of the obliquity insolation cycle (40,000-year) and its 2/1 (20,000-year) resonance assuming a response lag of about 4,500 years (Karlstrom 1961).  Isotope indices of an equatorial Pacific Ocean core from Chuey and others (1987); the equatorial Atlantic record from Martinson and others (1987).  Both chronologies are fine-tuned to the Milankovitch 60°N lat climatic model assuming corresponding response lags.  The two records differ mainly in (1) out-of-phase relations about 225,000 years BP and (2) relative glacial amplitudes of the last 125,000 years.  These differences suggest either heterogenieties in the global record or remaining difficulties with dating procedures and sample mixing.  Note the tendency for near in-phase oscillations with the obliquity 2/1 (about 20,000 year) resonance.  Most Quaternary researchers continue to correlate terrestrial paleoclimatic records with Martinson and others isotope record on the assumption that it provides a global climatic signal.  Scores of terrestrial records in this and previous papers appear to contradict this assumption and to support the solar insolation/tidal resonance model, which requires opposing longer-term climatic trends in the two hemispheres, but globally synchronous secondary climatic oscillations.  From Figure 28 in Karlstrom (1995).

 

Figure 2

Correlation of highest resolution Northern and Southern Hemisphere glacial records with marine chronostratigraphy (glaceoeustatic sea levels), with antiphasing hemispheric precessional trends and with displacement of caloric equator and its associated intertropical convergence zone.  Richmond (1976) and Terasmae and Dreimanis (1976) see a remarkable coincidence between their glacial chronostratigraphies and those of the dated sear level records.  This supports the concept of glaceoeustasy, but not necessarily that of interhemispheric climatic synchrony.  This is so because the much greater volume of glacial ice in the Northern Hemisphere (Karlstrom 1966).  Because of remaining dating uncertainties, Clapperton and others (1995) do not attempt specific correlation of their Southern Hemisphere glacial events with those of the Northern Hemisphere.  However their B/C and D/E glacial complexes, as broadly dated between 45,000 and 25,000 years, and the present, most closely align with the local Southern Hemisphere precessional trends, which, as shown above, are displaced 10,000 years from their Northern Hemispheric precessional counterparts and their correlative continental-glacial and global glaceoeustatic events.  Insolation curves after Milankovitch (1941); his calculations are essentially confirmed by von Woerkom (1953), Verneker (1972) and Berger (1981).  Alternate north-south displacement of the caloric equator and reversing insolation gradients may serve to force or facilitate modulation of changing summer circulation patterns in the two hemispheres.  In the regard, note the parallelism of the equatorial lake-level record with calculated oscillations of the caloric equator.  Also note the apparent absence in the lower Southern Hemisphere of the classic Northern Hemisphere’s “Little Ice Age” (Alaskan glaciation) due to antiphasing precessional trends across the equator (also see Figure 13 in Karlstrom 1998).

 

Figure 3

Latitudinal control of terrestrial climate records.  These dated records seemingly parallel more closely the local latitudinal insolation trends than the dated records at other latitudes.  If these climate records are representative of their respective latitudinal belts, the conventional concept of interhemispheric climatic synchrony dominated by high latitude Northern Hemisphere insolation mush be reassessed as a basis for Ice Age correlations and global paleoclimatic reconstructions (Karlstrom 1961).  Other records discussed in Karlstrom (1997) (Figures 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 16, and 24) substantially strengthen the case for latitudinal insolation controls and for the opposite phasing of longer-term climatic trends across the equator.  Modified from Figure 29 in Karstrom (1995) and Figure 24 in Karlstrom (1997).

 

Figure 4

Owens Lake stable isotope record on time scale of the 6,672-year cycle, and correlation with local precessional insolation.  Owens Lake indices, climatic interpretation and designation of closed lake (C1) and glacial (G1) events of Bischoff and others (1997); C1-36 dated moraines from Philips and others (1996); summer solar insolation indices from Vernekar (1972).  Bischoff and others (1997) note the divergence of the oldest part of their lake records from the Devil’s Hole isotope record (Winograd and others 1992) and suggest that this may result either from the use of different proxies or from dating errors in the early part of their own record.  Adjustments to match the Devil’s Hose record (see Figure 3) essentially provide a one-to-one match of lower lake-level phases with precessional maxima as shown above.

 

Figure 5

Water table fluctuations in Brown’s Room, Devil’s Hole, NV (lat 36°30'N) and correlation with local precessional trends.  T/U series-dated indices from Figure 5 of Szabo and others (1995).  The record extends the higher resolution record of Winograd and others (1992) from 50,000 year BP to the present by evidently completing the one-to-one correlation with local precessional trends, in this case, of higher water tables with precessional minima 9 and 10.  The results are consistent with those Sturchio and others (1994) (see Figure 3).           

 

Figure 6

Radiocarbon and T/U series-dated pollen record from Banyoles Lake, Spain (lat 42°N) on time scale of the 3,336-year substage cycle.  Pollen indices replotted at 500-year intervals from Figure 4in Perez-Obiol and Julia (1994).  The authors recognize the Bolling and an unnamed interstadial about 28,000 BP, but not the other secondary trends towards warming which appear to also phase strongly with the 3,336-year substage cycle.  The primary trends of the record, consistent with its latitudinal location, most strongly parallel (with a requisite lag) that of middle northern latitude solar insolation (see Figure 3).

 

Figure 7

Speleothem stable isotope record of Soreq Cave, Israel (lat 32°N) on time scale of the 3,336-year substage cycle with correlations to local lake-level changes and precessional insolation.  18/0 indices from Bar-Matthews and others (1997); lake-level indices of the Dead Sea and its precursor Lisan Lake after Begin and others (1985) and Fremkin and others (1991); and solar insolation indices from Vernekar (1972).  Note: (1) the apparent, quick response of the isotopic composition of meteoric water to the local precessional insolation controls and (2) the strong tendency of the isotope record, but not the lower resolution lake record, to phase with the substage cycle.  Based on several years of readings of annual rainfall and isotopic composition, Bar-Matthews and others (1997) assume that the apparent negative correlation applies to the past as well.  They, thus, interpret their record to indicate cold and dry conditions during the last major glaciation (and associated higher lake levels) vs. warmer and wetter with associated lower lakes during the Holocene.

 

Figure 8

Lucustral diatom record near Mexico City (lat 19°N) and local precessional trends on the time scale of the 3,336-year substage cycle and its 3/1 (1,112-year) stadial resonance.  Diatom water chemistry and habitat preference indices from Caballero and Guerrero (1998) replotted at 500-year intervals; precessional indices from Verneker (1972).  Deeper and fresher water indicators are summed in upper curve; shallower and saltier indicators are summed and inverted in the lower curve to satisfy the indicated paleoclimatic equation and correlation with the local precessional insolation trends.

Primary trends by 5^th-order polynomial.  Note: (1) the striking parallelism of the stacked lake record’s primary trends (with an appropriate cause-and-effect lag) to the local precessional insolation trends and with inferred lower lakes coinciding with the insolation maxima and (2) the tendency of the secondary oscillations to phase with substage cycle.  Though this tendency of the record as dated is weak, correlation can be greatly improved by minor fine-tuning that is within dating uncertainties resulting from sigma errors and the assumption of uniform depositional rates between dated horizons.

 

Figure 9

Pollen, inferred temperature, and dated glacial records from La Laguna, Columbia (lat 5°N) on time scale of the 3,336-year substage cycle.  Dated indices from Helmens and others (1996).  Pollen from their Figure 2 replotted at 10-cm intervals, assuming uniform depositional rates between dated horizons.  Their inferred temperature curve from Figure 5 as replotted at 500-year intervals.  Note the lagged Parallelism with the local precessional trends and the strong tendency of the temperature record to phase with the substage cycle.  The evidence for the Bolling-Allerod warmer interval and for their La Laguna interstade is indicated but not the equally pronounced warmer intervals (also labeled above as interstades) that associate with other turning points of the substage cycle.  The about 15,500-year BP interstade, through not clearly recorded in the pollen record, is more directly defined by doted buried soils in morphostratigraphic sections.

 

Figure 10

Correlation of equatorial lake record (lat 1°11'N) with precessional solar insolation positioned on time scale of the 3,336-year substage cycle.  Note the strikingly appropriate lagged parallelism with the local precessional insolation trends and the correlation of glaciations with precessional minima.  As shown in Figure 2, the same parallelism exists between this record and the oscillations of the caloric equator as calculated by Milankovitch (1941), suggesting that such caloric displacements modulated equatorial climate (Karlstrom 1998).

 

Figure 11

South American pollen records and local precessional solar insolation on time scale of the 3,336-year substage cycle.  Catas Altais pollen indices from Berling and Lichte (1997) replotted at 1,000-year intervals from their Figure 3B.  Schemata of nearby Salitre record as defined by Ledru and others (1996); that of the Pampas record in Argentina as interpreted by Prieto (1996).  Prieto suggests that the wetter pampas conditions between 10,500 and 5,00 years BP reflects decreased continentality resulting from higher sea levels or from a poleward shift of the Atlantic convergence zone.  Behling and Lichte interpret the Catas Altais pollen as indicating drier as well as colder conditions between 40,000 and 27,000 years BP on the premise that the general absence of trees at these upper elevations must reflect drier conditions during the last major glaciation as this is defined by the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and by the standard marine record (see Figure 1).  They also note their differences with colleagues who interpret other regional pollen records to indicate wetter as well as cooler intervals in the same time frame.  As shown above, those intervals that have been defined as wet as well as cold provide patterns that most closely parallels the summer solar insolation trends, which are 180° out-of-phase with their North American counterparts (see Figures 2 and 3).  Most recently Ledru and others (1998) reevaluate South American pollen lake records and conclude that because of dessication and inconformities in all seven records between 18,000 and 20,000 years BP there is no stratigraphic evidence of the last major glaciation as defined and dated in the Northern Hemisphere.

 

Figure 12

Correlation of Southern Hemisphere records with solar insolation on time scale of 3,336-year substage cycle and its 3/1 (1,112-year) stadial cycle.  Lake Victoria pollen indices and hydrologic interpretation from Kendall (1969) (also see Figure 11 in Karlstrom 1995).  Andean lake record in percent biologic production from Abbot and others (1997).  Th/U-dated, New Zealand stable isotope record from Hellstrom and others (1998).  Note (1) parallelism with local precessional insolation and progressive shifting toward obliquity trends with increasingly higher latitudes and (2) the weak-to-strong tendencies of these records to phase with turning points of the substage and stadial cycles or synchronous counterparts north of the equator.

 

Figure 13

Bioclimatic record of Homer Bog, Cook Inlet, Alaska on time scale of the 1,112-year stadial cycle and its 2/1 (556-year) phase resonance and 4/1 (278-year) subphase resonance.  Pollen indices from Heuser (1965) time calibrated by basal date listed in Karlstrom (1964).  The higher frequency in Girdwood Bog record is schematically plotted as interpreted climatically in Karlstrom (1961).  Because of lesser sensitivity and wider sampling intervals, Homer Bog shows the strongest tendency to oscillate in phase with the 556-year phase cycle and positions the driest postglacial interval contemporaneous with that of the Southwest altithermal (AC) and in the late Atlantic of northern Europe (see Figure 18).  Figure modified from Figure 18 in Karlstrom (1995).  Note the strong correlation between the inferred dry troughs of this pollen record and the subdivision boundaries of the Cook Inlet glacial chronology estimated to mark the approximate timing of retreat culminations between glacial advances.

 

Figure 14

Bioclimatic record of Sithylemankat Lake, norther Alaska, (lat 66°N) on time scale of the 1,112-year stadial cycle and its 2/1 (556-year) phase resonance.  Radiocarbon-dated indices from Anderson and others (1990).  This high latitude record seemingly replicates middle latitudes Northern Hemisphere records in placing the warmest and direst postglacial interval between 5,000 and 6,000 years BP.  This result, however, does not agree with what appears to be a developing palynological consensus that the warmest postglacial interval in Alaska is marked by the populous maximum about 10,000 years BP.  The lake record also suggests a strong tendency to phase with both the stadial and substage cycles derived from moraine and bog stratigraphy in the more southerly Cook Inlet region of Alaska.

 

Figure 15

Bioclimatic record of Farewell Lake, Alaska, (lat 62°N) on time scale of the 1,112-year stadial cycle.  Three-point smoothed pollen indices from Hu and others (1996) replotted at 250-year intervals.  The record is reconstructed by the same procedures used in interpreting the other pollen records showing the transition from tundra to forests during the glacial-postglacial transition to warming (see Figures 14 and 18).  Based on the correlation between glacier size and proximity to precipitation sources (Karlstrom 1961), I continue to assume that postglacial retreat was also facilitated by diminishing precipitation (less snowfall above rising snow lines), thus, the paleoclimatic equation shown on this and previous figures.  Hu and others, however, conclude from associated chemical components that the Betula shrub tundra with Populus at the beginning of the record was colder and drier than the later forest-tundra types which reflect warmer and wetter conditions.  They also note that this interpretation is not corroborated by concentrations of carbonate interpreted by other researchers to reflect reversed lake-level and climatic relations.  Also note: (1) that their inferred early postglacial warm period occurs during a series of recessional glacial advances of Skilak and Tanya age in the nearby Cook Inlet region; (2) that their pollen record as reconstructed above suggests the warmest and driest postglacial interval about 3500 years BP rather than earlier, as suggested by many western North American records (for examples, Figures 14 and 18); (3) that this discrepancy may result from lack of separate graphs for white and black spruce, whose temporal distribution is interpreted by Hu and others as suggesting colder and wetter climate after 6000 years BP; and (4) the fairly strong tendency for the secondary warming trends to phase with the stadial cycle as defined in the Cook Inlet glacial chronology (Karlstrom 1961, 1964).

 

Figure 16

Bioclimatic record of Pleasant Island, southeastern Alaska, (lat 58°N) on time scales of the 1,112-year stadial cycle.  Organic carbon indices from Figure 14 in Hanson and Engstrom (1996) replotted at 500-year intervals.  Interpreted in the sense of lesser organic production during colder and deeper lake phases and greater production during shallower and warmer phases provides a strikingly parallel record to that of the glacial history constructed for the nearby Cook Inlet region to the North from moraine, bo, and lake chronostratigraphy (Karlstrom 1961, 1964).  Note (1) the strong phasing with the substage cycle, but the much weaker phasing with the stadial cycle, probably due to differing regional climates, response functions, or levels of smoothing; (2) general parallelism with the higher resolution Homer Bog record on Cook Inlet (Figure 13); and (3) confirmation of the youngest Dryas correlation suggested by Hansen and Engstrom and also of correlatives to the Allerod, older Dryas, Bolling, and part of the oldest Dryas, as these are defined and radiocarbon dated in type areas and other localities in Europe and as marked by turning points of the cyclical classification of nearby Cook Inlet (see above and Figure 18).

 

Figure 17

Bioclimatic record of Antifreeze Pond, Yukon Territory, Canada, on time scale of the 3,336-year substage cycle and its 3/1 (1,112-year) stadial resonance.  Pollen indices from Rampon (1970).  Alaska glacial classification and cyclical subdivision from Karlstrom (1961).  Trend analysis suggests a strong response to the substage cycle and where the sampling interval is sufficiently close, to the stadial cycle as well.  Figure modified from Figure 24 in Karlstrom (1995).  Note the well-defined oscillations in phase with the classic Dryas sequence of northern Europe.

 

Figure 18

Cook Inlet bioclimate and collated European high-resolution records on time scale of the 1,112-year stadial cycle and its 2/1 (556-year) and 4/1 (278-year) resonances.  A: Cook Inlet Homer Bog.  B: Agarode Bog/hydrology of Sweden (Nilsson 1964a, 1964b).  C: Alps timberline fluctuations (Beug 1982).  D: Danish Bolling Bog (Karlstrom 1961).  E: Swiss Wachseldorn Bog (oeschger and others 1980) that, though sampled at shorter time intervals, replicates with some fidelity the classic late glacial/Dryas sequence of Denmark in D. Data from Figures 2 and 3 in Karlstrom (1996).  Note that Nilsson’s hydrologic reconstruction of the Agarode Bog record favors the interpretation that the late Atlantic was the driest and warmest interval in postglacial time or consistent with other European and North American records (Karlstrom 1956).

 

Figure 19

Summary evidence for a dendroclimatic cycle in phase with the 139-year event cycle.  Half-cycle smoothing positioned on cycle turning points.  Trend correlations, temperature, and precipitation range from 0.75 to >0.90 or within the upper range of tree ring and climate calibrations.  This suggests that the cycle is real, regionally robust, and related to changing atmospheric dynamics and circulation patters.  Similar half-cycle analyses of other records may define differing regional patterns and responses, advancing understanding of climatic and biologic process.  Modified from Figure 10 in Karlstrom (1995).  PB= Point Boundary (clustering of Southwest alluvial basal-contact dates) from Karlstrom (1976a, 1998).

 

Figure 20

North American and German tree ring records on time scale of the 2/1 (34.75-year) resonance of the 69.5-year subevent cycle.  Half-cycle smoothing positioned on turning points of the inferred tidal resonances.  North American tree ring indices from the indicated tables in Schulman (1956); German indices from Appendix 16 in Ladurie (1972).  Note that these records phase strongly with different elements of the tidal resonance modal suggesting differing regional air-mass dynamic: the higher latitude western North American records with the 69.5-year subevent cycle; the mid-latitude records east of the Rocky Mountains with the 139-year event cycle; and the German record with the still-longer 278-year subphase cycle.  The tree ring evidence for the higher latitude subevent cycle is apparently reflected in Delcourt and others’ (1996) northern Lake Michigan strandline evidence for a 70-year temperature cycle extending back the mid-Holocene time.  Note parallelisms between the two mean tree ring width records (curves 2A and 7).

Figure 21

Iceland temperature record on time scale of the 139-year event cycle and its 2/1 (69.5-year) and 6/1 (23.166-year) resonances.  Ten-year temperature indices from Bergthorson (1969).  Half-cycle smoothing as before.  Note the strong tendency to oscillate in phase with the 278-year subphase cycle and the lesser tendencies with the 139-year event cycle and its resonances.  The medieval warm period, placed between about AD 900 and 1300 by Lamb (1977) is dated later by other researchers.  For correlation of the post-AD 1700 part of the Iceland temperature record with sunspots see Friis-Christiansen and Lassen (1991) and Figure 12 in Karlstrom (1995).  This figure also includes a tree ring-dated isotope record and a marine record (Figure 22) that also seems to phase with the sunspot record.

 

Figure 22

Varve-dated marine record of the Santa Barbara Basin, California, on the time scale of the 139-year event cycle and its 3/1 (46.33-year) resonance.  Indices from Pandolfi and others (1980) replotted at 20-year intervals.  Original indices collated with a Japanese tree ring record that reflects cycles of 273 20 years (U) and 271 11 years (D/H).  The Santa Barbara core record demonstrates a similar length marine cycle that is in phase with the 278-year subphase cycle.  These correlations suggest that a greater amount of organic carbon was supplied during major Southwest wet (depositional) intervals than during major dry intervals.  The record also shows a strong tendency to phase with the about 46-year resonance and a stronger tendency with its double (93-year) Gleissberg cycle.  Analysis by half-cycle smoothing positioned on turning points of the 139-year event cycle.  From Figure 15 in Karlstrom (1995).

 

Figure 23

Sunspot and climate records on time scale of the 139-year event cycle and its 3/1 (46.3-year) and 12/1 (11.5-year) resonances.  Sunspot, hemispheric temperature, and Iceland indices to 1745 from Friis-Christiansen and Lassen (1991); extension of Iceland temperature record by indices from Bergthorsen (1969); Santa Barbara marine indices from Pandolfi and others (1980) and tree ring-dated isotope indices from Epstein and Yapp (1976).  Sunspots and collated climatic records appear to be directly related to the tidal resonance model through in-phase relations with the 46-year resonance and its double Gleissberg sunspot cycle.  Weaker tendency for sunspot lengths and higher resolution climate records to oscillate in phase with the 11.5-year resonance.  These correlations constitute the strongest empirical evidence to date for tidal and solar modulation of climate.

 

References

 

Abbot MB, GO Seltzer, KR Kelts, and J Southon. 1997. Holocene paleohydrology of the tropical

            Andes from lake records. Quat Research 47:70-80.

 

Ancour A, C Hillaire-Marchel, and R Bonnefille. 1994. Late Quaternary biomass changes from 13 C measurements in a highland peat bog from equatorial Africa (Burundi). Quat Research 41:225-33.

Barnola JM, D Raymond, YS Korotkevich, and C Lorius. 1987. Vostock ice core provides 160,000-year record of atmospheric CO2. Nature 329:4-10.

 

Bartlein PJ, ME Edwards, SL Shafer, and ED Barker, Jr. 1995. Calibration of radiocarbon ages and the interpretation of paleoenvironmental records. Quat Research 44:417-24.

 

Bar-Mathews M, A Ayalon, and A Kaufman. 1997. Late Quaternary paleoclimate in the eastern Mediterranean Region from stable isotope analysis of speleothems at Soreq Cave, Israel. Quat Research 47:144-68.

 

Begin ZB, W Broecher, B Buchbinder, Y Druckman, A Kaufman, M Margaritz, and D Neev. 1985. Dead Sea and Lake Lisan levels in the last 30,000 years: a preliminary report. Israel Geological Survey Report 29:1-18.

 

Behling, Herman, Lichte, and Martin. 1997. Evidence of dry and cold climatic conditions at glacial times in tropical Southeastern Brazil. Quat Research 46:348-58

 

Bergthorsen P. 1969. An estimate of drift ice and temperature in Iceland in 1,000 years. Jour Jokull 19:94-101.

 

Berry MS. 1982. Time/Space and Transition in Anasazi Prehistory. Salt Lake City (UT): University of Utah Press. 147 p.

 

Bischoff J, I Kirsten, M Menking, JP Fitts, and JA Fitzpatrick. 1997. Climatic oscillations 10,000-155,000 yr BP at Ownes Lake, California reflected in glacial rock flour abundance and lake salinity in core OL-92. Quat Research 46

 

Bloom AL and others. 1974. Quaternary sea level fluctuations on a tectonic coast: new 230TH/234U dates from the Huon Peninsula, New Guinea. Quat Research 4:185-205.

 

Bueg H. 1982. Vegetation history and climatic changes in central and southern Europe. In: Anthony Harding, editor. Climatic Change in Late Prehistory. Edinburgh: Edinburg University Press. P 85-102.

 

Caballero M and B Guerrero. 1998. Lake levels since about 40,000 years ago at Lake Chalco, near Mexico City. Quat Research 50: 59-79.

 

Chuey JM, DK Rea, and NG Pisias. 1987. Late Pleistocene paleoclimatology of the central Equatorial Pacific: a quantitative record of eolian and carbonate deposition. Quat Research 38:323-33.

 

Clapperton CM, DE Sudgen, DS Kaufman, and RD McCulloch. 1995. The last glaciation in Central Magellan Strait, southernmost Chile. Quat Research 44:133-48.

 

Dean JS and WJ Robinson. 1978. Expanded tree-ring chronologies for the southwest United States. Chronology Series III, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research. Tuscon (AZ): University of Arizona. 58 p.

 

Delcourt PA, WH Petty, and HR Delcourt. 1996. Late-Holocene formation of Lake Michigan beach ridges correlated with a 70-year oscillation in global climate. Quat Research 45:321-31.

 

Epstein S and CI Yapp. 1976. Climatic implications of the D/H ratio of hydrogen in C/H groups in tree cellulose. Earth Planet Sci Letters 30:2521089-1101.

 

Friis-Christensen E and K Lassen. 1991. Length of solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate. Science 254:698-700.

 

Fritts HC. 1967. Tree-ring analysis (dendroclimatology). Fairbridge R, editor. The Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences and Astrogeology. New York (NY): Reinhold. P 1008-26.

 

Frumkin AM, I Magaritz, I Carmi and I Zak. 1991. The Holocene climatic record of the salt caves of Mount Sedom, Israel. Holocene 1:191-200.

 

Hansen B, CS and DR Engstrom. 1996. Vegetation history of Pleasant Island, southeastern Alaska since 13,000 yr BP. Quat Research 48:161-70.

 

Heusser CJ. 1965. A pleistocene phytogeographic sketch of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. In: Wright HE and BG Frey, editors. The Quaternary of the United States. Princeton (NJ): Princeton University Press. P 469-83.

 

Gasse F and G Delibrious. 1976. Les Lacs de L’afar Centrol (Ethiopie et F.T.A.I.). In: Shoji H, editor. Paleoclimatology of Lake Biwa and the Japanese Pleistocene. P 529-75.

 

Graumlisch LJ. 1992. A 1,000-year record of climatic variability in the Sierra Nevada, California [handout]. Am. Quat. Assoc. 12^th Biennial Meeting; 23-26 Aug; Davis, California.

 

Hays JD, J Imbrie, and NJ Skackleton. 1976. Variations in the earth’s orbit: pacemaker of the ice ages. Science 94:1121-32

 

Hellstrom J, M McCulloch, and J Stone. 1998. A detailed 31,000-year record of climate and vegetation change from the isotope geochemistry of two New Zealand speleothems. Quat Research 50:167-78.

 

Helmens K, P Kahry, NW Rutter, K Van Der Borg, and AFM DeJong. 1996. Warming at 18,000 yr BP in the tropical Andes. Quat Research 45:289-99.

 

Heusser CJ. 1965. A Pleistocene phytogeographic sketch of the Pacific Northwest and Alaska. In: Wright HE and BG Frey, editors. The Quaternary of the United States. Princeton (NJ): Princeton University Press. P 469-83.

Hevly RH and TNV Karlstrom. 1974. Southwest paleoclimate and continental correlations. In: Karlstrom TNV, G Swann, and RL Eastwood, editors. Geology of Northern Arizona and Notes on Archaeology and Paleoclimate. Geological Society of America Field Guide 1. Rocky Mountain Meeting; Flagstaff, Arizona. P 257-295.

 

Hu FS, LB Brubaker, and PM Anderson. 1996. Boreal ecosystem development in the northwestern Alaska Range since 11,000 yr BP. Quat Research 45:188-201.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1955. Late Pleistocene and recent glacial chronology of southcentral Alaska.       Geol Soc of America Bull 66:1581-2.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1956. The problem of the cochrane in Late Pleistocene chronology. US Geol Survey Bull 1021J:303-33.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1961. The glacial history of Alaska: its bearing on paleoclimatic theory. Annals New York Academy of Science 95:290-340.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1964. Quaternary geology of the Kenai Lowland and glacial history of the Cook Inlet Region, Alaska. US Geological Survey Professional Paper. 69 p.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1966. Quaternary glacial record of the North Pacific Region and worldwide climatic change. In: Blumenstock DJ, editor. Pleistocene and Post-pleistocene Climatic Variations in the Pacific Area. Honolulu (HI): Bishop Museum Press. P 153-82.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1975. Cenozoic time-stratigraphy of Colorado Plateaus, continental correlations and some paleoclimatic implications [handout]. Symposium on Quaternary Stratigraphy; 1975 May; York University, Toronto, Canada.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1976a. Stratigraphy and paleoclimate of the Black Mesa Basin. US Geological Survey Circular 778: 18-22.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1976b. Quaternary and upper Tertiary time-stratigraphy of the Colorado Plateaus, continental correlations and some paleoclimatic implications. In: Mahany WC, editor. Quaternary Stratigraphy of North America. Stroudsburg (PA): Bowden, Hutchinson and Ross Inc. p 275-282.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1988. Alluvial chronology and hydrologic change of Black Mesa and nearby Regions. In: Gumerman GJ, editor. The Anasazi in a Changing Environment. School of American Research Advance Seminar Book. London, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. p 45-91.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1995. A 139-year dendroclimatic cycle, cultural/environmental history, sunspots and longer-term cycles. In: Isaacs CM and VI Tharp, Editors. Proceedings of the 11^th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, Technical Report 40 of the Interagency Ecological Program for the Sacramento- San Joaquin Estuary; 1994 Apr 19-22; Asilomar, CA. Sacramento (CA): Interagency Ecological Program for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary. p 137-59.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1996. The QBO, El Niño, and Tidal Resonance Model. In: Isaacs CM and VI Tharp, editors. Proceedings of the 12^th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, Technical Report 46 of the Interagency Ecological Program for the Sacramento- San Joaquin Estuary; 1995 May 2-5; Asilomar, CA. Sacramento (CA): Interagency Ecological Program for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary. p 241-53.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1997. Addendum 1: paleclimate and the solar insolation-tidal resonance climate model. In: Isaccs CM and VI Tharp, Editors. Proceedings of the 13^th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, Technical Report 40 of the Interagency Ecological Program for the Sacramento- San Joaquin Estuary; 1996 Apr 14-17; Asilomar, CA. Sacramento (CA): Interagency Ecological Program for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary. p 201-24.

 

Karlstrom TNV. 1998. Addendum II: Paleoclimate and the Solar Insolation/Tidal Resonance Model. In: Wilson RC and VL Tharp, editors. Interagency Ecological Program Techical Report 57. Proceedings of the 14^th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop; 1997 April 6-9; (place of conference). Sacramento (CA): California Department of Water Resources. p 65-93.

 

Karlstrom TNV, GJ Gumerman, and RC Euler. 1976. Paleoenvironmental and cultural correlates in the Black Mesa Region. In: Gumberman GJ and EC Euler, Editors. Papers on Archaeology of Black Mesa, Arizona. Carbondale: Southern Illinois University Press. p 149-161.

 

Kendall RL. 1969. An ecological history of the Lack Victoria Basin. Ecological Monographs 39:121-76.

 

Ladure EL. 1971. Times for Feast and Times of Famine: A History of Climate Since the Year 1000. New York (NY): Doubleday.

 

Lamb HH. 1977. Climate: Present, Past and Future 2, Climate History and the Future. London, United Kingdom: Methuen.

 

Ledru MP. 1993. Late Quaternary environment and climatic changes in Central Brazil. Quat Research 39:90-8.

 

Ledru MP, J Bertaux, A Sifeddine, and K Sequio. 1998. Absence of last glacial maximum records in lowland tropical forests. Quat Research 49:233-7.

 

Martinson DG, NG Pisias, JD Hays, J Imbrie, TC Moore Jr., and NJ Shackleton. 1987. Age dating and the orbital theory of the ice ages: development of a high-resolution 0 to 300,000-year chronostratigraphy. Quat Research 27:1-29

Mesolella KJ. 1969. The astronomical theory of climatic change, Barbados data Jour Geology 2:250-74

 

Menking KM, JL Biskof, JA Fitzpatrick, JW Burdette and RO Rye. 1997. Climatic/hydrologic oscillations since 155,000 years B.P. at Owens Lake, California, reflected in abundance and stable isotope composition of sediment carbonate. Quat Research 48:58-68

 

Milankovitch M. 1941. Canon of Insolation and the Ice-age Problem. Translated from German by Israel Program for Scientific Translation, Jerusalem. Available from: US Department of Commerce, Springfield, Virginia.

 

Nilsson T. 1964a. Standardpollen diagramme und 14C daterungen aus dem Agarods Mosse im Mitteren Schonen. Lund Universitets Arskrift N. F. Avd 2, Bd 59, Nr. 7: 1-52. Lund: Hakan Ohssons Boktryceri.

 

Nilsson T. 1964b. Enwicklungsgeschichtliche studien im Agarods Mosse, Schonen. Lunds Universitets Arskrift N. N. Avd 2. Bd 59, Nr 8:1-34. Lund: Hakan Ohlssons Boktrycheri.

 

(NASC). 1983. North American Stratigraphic Code.

 

Oeschger H, M Welten, U Eicher, M Moll, T Riesen, U Siegenthaler, and S Wegmuller. 1980. 14C and other parameters during the Younger Dryas cold phase. Radiocarbon 22:299-310.

 

Pandolfi LJ, EK Kalil, PR Doose, LH Levine, and LM Libby. 1980. Climate Periods in trees and a sea sediment core. Radiocarbon. 22:740-5.

 

Perez-Obiol R and J Ramon. 1994. Climatic change on the Liberian Peninsula recorded in a 30,000-year pollen record from Lake Banyoles. Quat Research 41:91-8.

 

Philips FM, MG Zreda, LV Benson, MA Plummer, D Elmore, and P Sharma. 1996. Chronology for fluctuations in Late Pleistocene Sierra Nevada glaciers and lakes. Science 2174:749-51.

 

Prieto AR. 1996. Late Quaternary vegitational and climatic changes in the Pampa grassland of Argentina. Quat Research 45:73-88.

 

Rampton V. 1970. Late Quaternary vegetation and climatic history of the Snag-Klutlan Area, southwestern Yukon Territory, Canada. Geol Soc America Bull 81.

 

Richmond GM. 1976. Pleistocene stratigraphy and chronology in the mountains of western Wyoming. In: Many WC, Editor. Quaternary Stratigraphy of North America. Stroudsburg (PA): Douden, Hutchinson and Ross Inc. p 353-79.

 

Schulman E. 1956. Dendroclimatic Changes in Semiarid America. Laboratory of Tree-ring Research, University of Arizona. Tucson (AZ): University of Arizona Press.

 

Schlesinger ME and Ramankutty N. 1994. An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65-70 years. Nature 367: 723-6.

 

Sturchio NC, KL Pierce, MT Murrell, and ML Sorey. 1994. Uranium-series ages of travertine and timing of the last glaciation in the norther Yellowstone Area, Wyoming-Montana. Quat Research 42:265-77.

 

Szabo BL, PT Kolesar, AC Riggs, IJ Winograd, and KR Ludwig. 1994. Paleoclimatic inferences from a 120,000-year calcite record of water-table fluctuations in Browns Room of Devils Hole, Nevada. Quat Research 41:59-69.

 

Terasmae J and A Dreimanis. 1976. Quaternary stratigraphy of southern Ontario. In: Manhany WC, editor. Quaternary Stratigraphy of North America. Stroudsburg (PA): Douden, Hutchinson and Ross Inc. p 51-63.

 

Vernekar AD. 1972. Long period global variations of incoming solar radiation. Meteorological Monographs 12:19 p + 170 unnumbered pages.

 

Villagren C. 1988. Late Quaternary vegetation of southern Isla Grande de Chloe, Chile. Quat Research 29:294-306.

 

von Woerkom AJJ. 1953. Astronomical Teory. In: Shapley H, editor. Climatic Change. Cambridge (MA): Harvard University Press. p147-57.

 

Winograd IJ, TB Coplen, JM Landwehr, AC Riggs, KB Ludwig, BJ Szabo, PT Kolegar, and KM Revesz. 1992. Continuous 500,000-year climate record from vein calcite in Devils Hole, Nevada. Science 258:255-60.