Introduction

Paleoclimatic research searches the past for empirical evidence of past climates. Early analysis of sedimentary layers, tree-ring data and radio metrically dated material suggested a correlation of the following three cycles:

 

1. Longer term Ice-age trends with latitudinal changing summer solar insolation (the Milankovitch Climate Hypothesis: M. Milankovitch 1941)
2. Superimposed shorter fluctuations with globally synchronous changes in tidal forces generated by orbital relations between Sun, Moon and Earth (The Pettersson Climate Hypothesis: 0. Pettersson 1912-1930)
3. Associated processes such as volcanism (atmospheric dust and aerosols), geomagnetism and sunspots.

 

This paper focuses on demonstrating correlations between solar/lunar disturbances and climate, as well as volcanism, cosmic rays and solar/earth magnetism in time series. The correlations presented here focus on orbital disturbances in the solar system, which vary both tidal force and solar insolation, to determine if this may be the energy driving past climatic changes.

 

The Search for Climatic Change Clues
Clue Search #1— Higher Latitude Glaciations and the Obliquity Cycle versus Mid-latitude Glaciations and the Precessional Insolation Cycle

 

If the Milankovitch’s climate mechanism (summer half-year solar insolation) modulated Pleistocene Glaciations, as now accepted by most researchers, higher latitude glaciations should theoretically follow the ca. 40,000-year Obliquity Insolation Cycle which predominates in both polar regions. On the other hand, glaciations in mid latitudes should largely reflect the ca. 20,000-year Precessional Cycle characterized instead by opposing trends across the Equator.

High latitude glacial records from the Cook Inlet Alaska do correlate well with the 40,000 Obliquity Cycle, while North American mid-continental ice sheets and mountain glaciers correlate with the 20,000 Precesssional Insolation Cycle. Also glaciations in Chile appear to be in oppose phase to their Northern Hemisphere counterparts, correlating with Precessional cycles. These opposite relationships were also noted in Southern Hemisphere lake-level fluctuations in eastern Africa and Australia when compared with the North American Southwest.

 

Clue Search #2 – Depositional, Tree-ring and Historical Evidence for the Phase, Subphase and Event Cycles.

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Alluvial deposits and tree-ring data strongly supports a 556 year phase and 278 year (2/1 resonance) subphase of climate cycles in the North American Southwest. Comparison of this data with thermograph records from Germany and temperature records from Iceland indicate that the late-postglacial warmer intervals of Europe coincide well with periods of drought in the North American Southwest. These events occurred around AD 900, 1150, 1450, and 1700. These correlations suggest that North Atlantic and North American Southwest atmospheric circulation patterns were responding to the same tidal resonance system.

 

Clue Search #3 – Volcanism as a primary or strictly a secondary factor in Climatic Change.

 

Volcanic deposits from Crete and Greenland ice cores indicate that volcanic activity is consistent with the 556 year phase and 278 year subphase cycles. Longer term correlations seem to show that the cooling effects of ash and aerosols ejected from volcanoes have a short cooling effect of several years at most. These records also support the concept that climate and volcanism are modulated by atmospheric and lithospheric tidal forces.

 

Clue Search #4 – The ca. 11 year and 22 year Sunspot Cycles, Tidal Resonances and possible climatic effects.

 

Certain natural cycles appear to be related to the 11 and 22 year Hale Sunspot Cycles, as well as sub-cycles. There also appears to be correlation with the 90 year Glesberg solar cycle along with its double 180 year cycle. Tree-ring records from the North American Midwest and the Colorado Plateaus show strong correlation to Sunspots and tidal resonances.

 

Sunspot cycles show a negative relation with cosmic rays and tidal forces, but correlate closely with geomagnetism. This has led Dr. Karlstrom to conclude the following equation:  Cool/Wet Climate = decreased tidal force = increased sunspot numbers = increased geomagnetism = decreased cosmic rays. Runoff records in the Western, Central and Eastern United States show strong correlation with the Hale Sunspot Cycle, as do records from the American Southwest.  Records from the American Northwest appear to show a negative correlation, possibly due to the Aleutian Low pressure system.

 

Clue Search #5 – Aleutian Low Pressure, Sunspots and Climate

 

The Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low dominate northern latitude atmospheric circulation, affecting the Jet Stream. Northwest climate should reflect Aleutian Low pressure changes whereas the Southwest should show a negative relationship, and this is in fact the case. Where the Southwest corresponds to the Hale Cycles, the Northwest demonstrates an inverse correlation.

 

Summary and Conclusions

 

1.     Upper latitude glaciations in both Hemispheres, along with cosmic rays and geomagnetism show strong correlation with the 40,000 Obliquity Cycle. Mid-latitude glaciations and associated climate changes followed the 20,000 Precessional Cycle with opposing trends across the Equator.

2.     The pervasive secondary oscillations recorded in most instrumental and paleoclimatic records reflect in part a complex system of globally synchronous harmonic tidal force resonances that in the recognizably complex non-linear system of climatic change episodically undergo abrupt phase changes. These abrupt reversals result in interrupted series, or runs, of quasi-periodic cycles so typical of the climatic record.

3.     Tidal force and sunspots are factors in short term climate change and correlate with cosmic ray and geomagnetism.

4.       The combined data get closer to determining orbital disturbances.

5.     As more information regarding the effects of many natural variables contributing to climate change emerge, it becomes difficult to project temperature trends of the past 200 years into the future as a product of man-caused “greenhouse gasses”. Warmer and cooler climates since the Industrial Revolution cannot be explained by human-caused pollution and must include a study of natural changes in climate.

 

While much work still needs to be done, these significant clues should help focus further research, which will hopefully lead to better Global Circulation Models which take into account cloud cover, geomagnetism, cosmic rays and tidal forces, along with other natural changes.

 

 

Empirical Search for Clues to Process and Dynamics Underlying Climatic Change
Thor Karlstrom

Abstract
Early analyses of high-resolution time series suggested correlation of longer term ice-age trends with latitude controlled solar insolation (The Milankovitch [1941] Climate Model); of shorter term trends with globally synchronous tidal forces (the Pettersson Climate Model); and of the associated processes such as geomagnetism, volcanism and higher frequency changes in solar output (cf Karlstrom 1961). Most paleoclimatologists now accept geometric solar insolation as the modulator of the Ice Ages, but most also assume that the waxing and waning of the much larger Northern Hemisphere ice sheets determined parallel climatic and associated glacial changes in the Southern Hemisphere. Over the past 10 years increasing attention has focused on the pervasive patterns of secondary oscillations so characteristic of the instrumental and paleoclimatic records; few researchers, however, have analyzed the possible phasing of these oscillations with either lunar or solar perturbations (Notable exceptions are listed below). The purpose of this paper is to provide time-series correlations that strongly suggest cause-and-effect relations between solar/lunar perturbations and climate, volcanism, cosmic rays and solar/earth magnetism. The presented correlations focus in on orbital perturbations of the solar system (varying both tidal force and insolation) as the operational energy system within which past climatic and associated process changes have been concurrently modulated (evidently with occasional non-linear phase reversals) at yearly to millennial scales. Although much work remains to be done, sufficient clues are now available to focus research into those critical areas likely to enhance understanding of the multi-factors underlying climatic change.

Introduction
In the absence of a generally accepted theory of past climatic change, paleoclimatic research necessarily concentrates on the empirical evidence of past climates in the search for clues relating to underlying process and dynamics. Early analysis of radiometrically, varve- and tree-ring-dated time series (Karlstrom 1955, 1956, 1961 and 1976; Karlstrom and others 1976) suggested correlation of:

1) the longer term Ice-age trends with latitudinal changing summer solar insolation (the Milankovitch Climate Hypothesis: M. Milankovitch 1941)
2) superposed shorter fluctuations with globally synchronous changes in tidal forces generated by orbital relations between Sun, Moon and Earth (The Pettersson Climate Hypothesis: 0. Pettersson 1912-1930)
3) of associated processes such as volcanism (atmospheric dust and aerosols), geomagnetism and sunspots (intrinsic or geometrically induced changes in the solar constant).

Paleoclimatologists with few exceptions now accept the geometric Solar Insolation Climate Hypothesis for the Ice Ages. Many assume, however, that the waxing and waning of the much larger Pleistocene ice sheets of the Northern Hemisphere determined parallel climatic and glacial changes in the Southern Hemisphere. Within the last ten years an increasing number of researchers have turned their attention to the pervasive patterns of yearly, decadal, centennial and millennial oscillations in their paleoclimatic and instrumental time series. Relatively few, however, have analyzed the possible phasing of these oscillations with solar or lunar perturbations. For notable exceptions, however, see, among others, Abbott 1900; Clough 1905; Douglas 1919-1936; Willett 1961; Brier 1968; Fairbridge 1968; Michell and others 1979; Currie and others 1981-1990; Wood 1985; Friis-Christensen and Lassen 1991; Burroughs 1992; Sanders 1995; Keeling and Whorf 1997; and Berry and Hsu 2000. A major breakthrough relating to correlation of geometric solar perturbations with geomagnetism, cosmic rays, and climate (primarily cloud cover and precipitation), at scales ranging from the decadal sunspots to the millennial long solar-insolation trends, is most recently summarized in Mercurio (2001).

The purpose of this paper is to provide time-series correlations that strongly suggest cause-and-effect relations between solar/lunar perturbations and climate, volcanism, cosmic rays and solar/earth magnetism. The presented correlations focus in on orbital perturbations of the solar system (causing
- variations in both tidal force and insolation) as the operational energy system within which past climatic, volcanic and geomagnetic changes have been concurrently modulated (evidently with occasional non-linear phase reversals) at yearly, decadal, centennial and millennial scales.

Much work remains in refining our understanding of underlying physical linkages as well as of the dynamics of associated atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in characteristic regional variability. Nonetheless, significant clues are now available that should provide critical focus for further research, hopefully leading to the development of more sophisticated General Circulation Models (GCM) that incorporate the critical factors of cloud cover, geomagnetism, cosmic rays and tidal forcing, along with other definable natural changes such as atmospheric C02, methane and ozone.

The Search for Climatic Change Clues
Clue Search #1— Higher Latitude Glaciations and the Obliquity Cycle versus Mid-latitude Glaciations and the Precessional Insolation Cycle
If the Milankovitch’s climate mechanism (summer half-year solar insolation) modulated Pleistocene Glaciations, as now accepted by most researchers, higher latitude glaciations should theoretically follow the ca. 40,000-year Obliquity Insolation Cycle which predominates in both polar regions. On the other hand, glaciations in mid latitudes should largely reflect the ca. 20,000-year Precessional Cycle characterized instead by opposing trends across the Equator.

Figures 1 and 3 show high-latitude glacial and collated records that phase well with the Obliquity Cycle, and thus with my Cook Inlet Alaska chronology (Karlstrom 1961, 1964, 1968). In contrast, the North American mid-continental ice sheets as well as mountain glaciers terminating in the warmer mid latitudes, correlate with glacioeustatic sea-level records and, in turn, with the higher frequency Precessional Insolation Cycle (Figure 4). As shown in Figures 1 and 2, the amplitudes of the Alaska and Siberia glacial records follow more closely the Pacific- rather than the Atlantic- Ocean isotope record.

Current dating problems with the Southern Hemisphere glacial records make inter-hemispheric correlations less certain. But as shown in Figure 4, the Chile glaciations, as dated by Clapperton and others (1992), are evidently in opposition to their Northern Hemisphere counterparts, or again consistent with direct correlation with local Precessional trends. The same anti-phase relations occur between the Southern Hemisphere lake-level fluctuations of eastern Africa and Australia and those of  the North American Southwest (Street and Groves 1979). The classic Northern Hemisphere “Little Ice Age” (correlative of the Alaskan Glaciation) is evidently absent in southern middle and lower latitudes because of opposing insolation trends. In the Northern Hemisphere insolation trends indicate cooling since 10,000 years BP; in the Southern Hemisphere the contemporaneous trend is towards warming.

Figure 1 Marine records, cosmic rays, geomagnetism, high-lat. glaciations and the obliquity cycle Cook Inlet and Kodiak Island, Alaska Glaciations (Karlstrom 1961, 1964, 1968). Correlation of isotope temperature and ice volume, cosmic rays, geomagnetic intensity; Baikal Lake record and high latitude glaciations with the polar obliquity insolation cycle. These records are positioned on the author’s timescale of interglacial culminations (Karlstrom 1961) assuming a 4,500-year response lag between insolation and glacial retreat. Insolation indices from Verneke (1972); the temperature, cosmic ray and geomagnetic indices from Mercurio (2001); the “standard” marine isotope record of the equatorial Pacific Ocean from Chuey and others (1987); and the Lake Baikal record and time correlations with the Siberian glacial record from Karabanov and others (1998). See Figure 2 for a direct comparison of the above “standard” Pacific Ocean isotope record with the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Note confirmation of the general validity of the Cook Inlet glacial time frame by striking parallelisms with comparably high-latitude Siberian and Antarctica records and with the cosmic ray and geomagnetic records; all evidently directly modulated by solar insolation dominated in upper latitudes by the Obliquity Cycle. Also see Figure 3.

Figure 2 Two standard pleistocene marine isotope records. Cook Inlet, Alaska Glacial Chronology (Karlstrom 1961). Two “standard” marine ice age chronologies on timescale of the obliquiry insolation cycle (ca. 40,000-years) and its 2/1 (ca. 20,000-years) resonance assuming a response lag of ca. 4,500 years (Karlstrom, 1961). Isotope indices of an Equatorial Pacific Ocean core from Chuey and others (1987); the Equatorial Atlantic record from Martinson and others (1987). Both chronologies are fine-tuned to the Milankovitch N 60° Lat. Climatic Model assuming corresponding response lags. The records differ mainly in (1) out-of-phase relations ca. 225,000 yrs. BP and (2) post-125,000 yr. glacial amplitudes. These differences suggest either heterogenieties in the global record or remaining operational or sampling difficulties. Note the tendency for near in-phase oscillations with the Obliquity 2/1 (ca. 20,000-year) Resonance. Most researchers continue to correlate terrestrial paleoclimatic records with Martinson and others isotope record on the assumption that it reflects a global climatic signal. Many terrestrial records appear to contradict this assumption and to support instead the Insolation/Tidal-resonance Model which requires opposing longer term climatic trends in the two hemispheres because of precessional effects, but globally synchronous secondary climatic oscillations because of modulating tidal forces. Modified from Figure 28 in Karlstrom (1995).

Figure 3 Greenland ice-core isotope temperature, methane and north 600 latitude insolation. Correlation of Greenland GISP2 Ice-core record (N 600 L.) with Upper N. Latitude Solar Insolation on timescale of the 3336-year Substage Cycle and its x12 (40,032 yr.) superharmonic. Isotope- and methane-indices and dating of marine Heinrich Events (cold) and terrestrial Bølling/Alerød (warm) and Younger Dryas (cold) events by correlation with the GISP2 time frame (Brooks and others 1996). Their ice-core indices are replotted at 500-year intervals thus filtering out secondary cycles of less than 1000-years. Brooks and others correlate their GISP2 record with the N 60° Lat. solar insolation dominated by the Obliquity Cycle but slightly modified by precessional trends that predominate in lower latitudes (see Figure 4). Note the striking parallelism with the comparable-latitude Cook Inlet Alaska glacial record; also note the general positive correlation between glaciation and green-house methane gas, which emphasizes the important role of past climatic (nonanthropogenic) changes in determining the greenhouse-gas content of the atmosphere (Karlstrom 1995); and finally, note the lace of correlation between GISP2 secondary oscillations and the Substage Cycle which may result from differing response functions or from remaining uncertainties in dating.

Figure 4 Correlation of Northern and SoCorrelation of Northern and Southern Hemisphere glacial records with marine chronostratigraphy, with opposing Hemispheric Presessional Trends and with Latitudinal Displacement of the Caloric Equator and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Note the remarkable parallelisms of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude glacial records, the dated sea-level records and the mid- latitude precessional trends. These correlations support the concept of glacioeustacy, but not necessarily that of inter-hemispheric climatic synchrony. This is so because the much greater volumes of N. Hemisphere ice can mask opposing melt-water trends in the interconnected southern oceans (Karlstrom 1966). Interhemispheric correlation of glaciations remain uncertain (Clapperton and others 1992). However, their B/C and CID morainal complexes, as dated between 46,000-, 25,000-years and the present, most closely correlate with the local southern precessional trends which are displaced 10,000 years from their N. Hemisphere counterparts. The classic N. Hemisphere “Little Ice Age” is evidently absent in southern low- and middle-latitudes because of opposite precessional trends. Insolation curves after Milankovitch (1941).

Clue Search # 2—Depositional, Tree-ring, and Historical Evidence for the Phase, Subphase and Event Cycles.
Numerous cut-and-fill structures and partial exposures seriously restrict the use of conventional stratigraphic criteria in identifying and correlating alluvial depositional units within and between Southwest drainage lines. Time-frequency analysis of many directly dated buried soils and associated buried trees and archaeological sites was therefore required to satisfy the critical question of parallel or random depositional histories within the region (Karlstrom and others 1976, 1988; Euler and others 1979).
As shown in Figure 5, these alluvial basal contacts (dated by radiocarbon confirmed by associated internally consistent archaeological and tree-ring derived dates) strongly cluster in phase with the Phase and Subphase Cycles—as well as with basal-contact clustering in other regions, including data sets selected by other researchers. The regional history of climate-environmental change inferred from this depositional record has been strikingly replicated by half-cycle smoothing of tree-ring evidence (Figures 6 and 7), and more recently independently by other Southwest researchers (Force and Howell, in press: Grissino-Mayer, in press)

The tree-ring thermograph record of Germany (Figure 8) and the historically dated temperature record of Iceland (Figure 9) phase remarkably well with the same Subphase Cycle; the late-postglacial warmer intervals of Europe coincide with Southwest drought intervals centered ca. AD 900, 1150, 1450 and 1700. These correlations thus strongly suggest that atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic were responding to the same tidal resonance system as that which evidently modulated circulation patterns along the southwest coast of North America (see Figure 18 below).

Figure 5 Summary of time-frequency analysis of basal-contact dates from North America plotted pre century on timescale of the 556-yr. phase cycle and its 2/1 (278-yr.) resonance. Summary of time-frequency analysis of basal-contact dates from North America plotted per century on timescale of the 556-yr. Phase Cycle and its 2/1 (278-yr.) resonance. The author’s data is largely from Radiocarbon 1-15 and selected according to the following simple criteria: Samples of wood and organic carbon clearly described as collected from basal contacts. Many published dates are excluded because of unusually large counting errors, or because the dated materials (carbonates, bone, and humics) are more likely to be contaminated by older or younger carbon. Porter and Denton’s (1967) and Denton and Karlen’s (1973) independently selected glacial dates replicate the author’s basal-contact analyses in confirming strong phasing with the 556-yr. Phase cycle, and lesser, but still significant, phasing with the 278-yr. Subphase Cycle. The Stratigraphic Commission (1983) defines basal- contact dates as chronostratigraphic Point Boundaries.

Figure 6 Colorado Plateaus hydrologyc Dendroclimate and culture. Colorado Plateaus Hydrology, Dendroclimate and Culture on timescale of the 278-year Cycle and its 2/1 Event Resonance. Decadal tree-ring indices from Berry (1982); 50-yr. and half-cycle smoothing. Tree-ring- and radiocarbon-dated buried sites and trees and chronostratigraphic subdivision from Karlstrom (1976, 1988). PB=clustering of basal-contact dates. Tree-ring-dated surface sites from Euler and others (1979), Berry (1982) and Breternitz and others (1986). Note striking parallelisms between tree-ring and hydrologic records and number of dated sites (rough approximation of population size and movement). Culture designation: SCP=S. Cob. Plats. sites; MHRG=Mogollon Rim Sites; CC=Chaco Canyon sites; DUR=Durango sites; DAP=Dolores Achaeol. Project sites. To satisfy the paleoclimatic equation, higher elevation sites as potential drought indicators are subtracted from the intermediate elev. sites (SCP and CC); (+) scores=predominantly intermed.-elev. sites; (-) scores=predom. higher elev. sites.

Figure 7 Southwest tree-ring records and the 139-year event cycle. Southwest Tree-ring Cycle in phase with the 2/1 (139.yr.) resonance of the 278-year Subphase Cycle. Half-cycle smoothing centered on turning points of the theoretical 2/1 resonance. Correlation of both precipitation and temperature range from 0.75 to > 0.90, or within the correlation range (<0.60- >0.90) of published tree-ring/climate calibrations. This strongly suggests that the cycle is real, regionally robust and evidently related to changing regional atmospheric circulation patterns. Similar half- cycle analyses of other records define differing regional patterns (Karlstrom 1999) which should provide clues toward enhanced understanding of atmospheric dynamics and biologic response. Figure modified from Figure 10 in Karlstrom (1995).

Figure 8 German tree-ring record and the 278-year subphase cycle. German tree-ring record on timescale of the 278-year Subphase Cycle and its 2/1 (139-yr.) and 4/1 110-year tree-ring indices from Ladurie (1972). Half-cycle smoothing positioned on resonance turning points. Plotted as a thermograph (inverted indices), the resulting record is strikingly similar to that derived historically for Iceland (Figure 9). Both show the same strong tendency to phase with the Subphase Cycle superposed on a general cooling trend since the 9th century However, the abrupt trend in Iceland towards warming beginning in the 19th century is not present in Germany evidently because of a regime shift following AD 1711.

Figure 9 Iceland temperature record and the 278-year subphase cycle. Iceland temperature record on timescale of the 139-year event cycle and its 2/1 (69.5-yr.) and 611 (23.166-yr.) resonances. Ten-year temperature indices from Bergthorson (1969). Half-cycle smoothing as before. Note the strong tendency to oscillate in phase with the 278-year Subphase Cycle, and the lesser tendencies with the 139-year Event Cycle and its 2/1 (69.5-yr.) and 6/1 (23.17-yr.) resonances. These oscillations are superposed on a general cooling trend between the 9th and early 19th centuries, at which point there ensues a marked warming trend to present. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP), placed between AD 900 and 1300 by Lamb (1977), includes several shorter warmer intervals recorded in this and other records from Europe (see Figure 7) and variously named by other researchers. General agreement of the Iceland temperature record with SW alluvial subdivision, and the Resonance Climate Model is as remarkable as is the parallelisms with the Sunspot Cycle (Figure 10).

Clue Search #3—Volcanism as a primary or strictly a secondary factor in Climatic Change.
Time-frequency analyses of radiocarbon-dated volcanic deposits and other time-series correlations indicate increased volcanic activity coincident at centennial and millennial scales with warmer/drier climatic intervals which in turn pace with the Phase and Subphase Cycles (Figure 10). The sulfuric acid indices of the Crete, Greenland ice core (interpreted as reflecting increased levels of volcanic activity;) may also correlate more directly at the decadal scale with historically recorded retreatal phases (inferred warm/dry) in the longest glacial records available from the Swiss Alps (Figure 11). These longer term correlations thus appear consistent with the historic evidence of the restrictively short cooling effects (several years at most) of ash and aerosols following major eruptions (Rampton and Self 1981). In addition, they support the dynamic concept that climate and volcanism are commonly modulated or triggered by tidal forces acting in consort on both atmosphere and lithosphere. Equally remarkable is the parallelism of the Crete acid record with both tidal-force resonances and the sunspot length record as shown in Figure 12.

Figure 10 Sunspot length, climate records and the 139-year event cycle. Sunspot and Climate Records on timescale of the 139-year Event Cycle and its 3/1 (46.3) and 12/1 (11.5-yr.) resonances. Sunspot, hemispheric temperature and Iceland indices to 1745 from Friss-Christensen and Lassen (1991); extension of Iceland temperature record from Bergthorsen (1969); and Yap (1976). Sunspots and collated climatic records appear to be related to the Tidal Resonance Model through in-phase relations with the Ca. 46-year Resonance and its double Gleissberg Sunspot Cycle. Poorer tendency for Sunspots and higher resolution climate records to oscillate in phase with the ca. 11-yr. Sunspot resonance. In the literature the Gleissberg Cycle has been variously dated between 78- and 100-yrs. The above evidence suggests it lies closer to 90 years. See Figure 12 for another parallel paleoclimatic record. From Figure 5 in Karlstrom (1996).

Figure 11 Volcanic time frequencies and the phase and subphase cycles. Time-frequency diagrams of global and North American Volcanic activity on timescale of the 556-year Phase Cycle and its 2/1 (278-yr.) resonance. Volcanic ratio indices from Bryson and Goodman (1980); number indices from Karlstrom (1975). Centered 100-year class intervals act as low-pass filter restricting analyses to cycles with wavelengths of more than 200 years. Note the strong tendency for clustering in phase with the Phase Cycle and the lesser, but still positive, tendencies to phase with the Subphase Cycle. The consistency of results from independently selected data sets strongly suggest that tidal resonances may play a significant role in triggering volcanic activity. However, the generally positive correlation of increased volcanism with the warm/dry epicycles minimizes the importance of transitory atmospheric cooling by volcanic ejecta and aerosols as a significant causal factor in these longer term climatic changes. Nonetheless, to predict future volcanic events solely by tidal intensity is highly uncertain because of the statistical nature of the correlation, and because the required triggering mechanism involves endogenetic threshold conditions that can vary appreciably from one volcanic center to another. Figure from Figure 6 in Karlstrom (1998).


Figure 12 Greenland acidity glacial oscillations, tidal resonances and sunspots. Crete, Greenland ice-core record of acid (volcanism), and Swiss Glaciers on timescale of the 139-year Event Cycle and its 3/1 (46.33-yr.) and 5/1 (27.8-yr.) resonances. Indices of ice-core acidity and glacial records replotted from figures 1 and 2 in Porter (1981). Note: (1) that the interpretation of acidity as a proxy for volcanism and correlation of increased volcanic aerosols with glacial advances requires a ca. 10-year response lag (marked by dashed black lines in the figure); and (2) the remarkably clear correlation, not previously noted, of the direct phasing of Greenland Acidity with the Event Cycle and its 3/1 and 5/1 resonances, and with intervals of low acidity phasing with tree-ring-defined SW droughts (Figure 7). The Crete acidity record with its Ca. 46-year phasing can now be added to Figure 10, fortifying the impression of common linkages with both tidal resonances and solar (sunspot) processes. The possible presence of the 27.8-yr. Cycle in other records requires additional half-cycle analyses after appropriate smoothing.

Clue Search #4—The ca. 11-year and 22-year Sunspot Cycles, Tidal Resonances, and possible climatic effects.
Following World War I, extensive research on weather cycles resulted in cycles with so many different wavelengths that meteorologists rejected most either as products of noise or as procedural artifacts. A few cycles, however, appeared to be valid and worldwide in distribution (De Boer, 1968). These include correlatives of the single and double Hale Sunspot Cycles (ca. 11.12 and 22.24 years respectively) along with the 2/1 resonance of 5.56 years, the 4/1 resonance of 2.75 years and the 5/1 resonance of 2.22 years. Burroughs (1992) interprets the following as the best documented of the more recently defined climate cycles: Ca. 2-3 year cycle, ca. 5-7 year cycle, ca. 11.1 year cycle (the equivalent of the fundamental sunspot cycle); the ca. 20-years cycle (which because of power-spectral imprecision could represent either or both of the nodal tidal-force cycle of 18.61 years and the double [Hale] Sunspot cycle of 22.24 years); the ca. 80-90 year cycle (presumably the climate equivalent of the ca. 90-year solar Gleisberg Cycle: see Figure 12) and a roughly 200-year cycle that may be the equivalent of the x 2 (180-year) cycle generated by displacement of the solar

As shown in Figure 13 the average sunspot cycle of 11.12 years is precisely the 25/1 resonance of the Subphase Cycle (with synchpoint at AD 1711) which phases very strongly with sunspot numbers— excepting the apparent abrupt phase shifts near AD 1780 and 1989. My previous correlation (Karlstrom 1998) of Sunspot number with the 24/1 resonance (1 l.583-yrs.) now appears less valid than that of the 25/1 resonance, although analysis of longer records is needed to verify this fine distinction.

Figures 14-17 provide examples of climatic records that appear to directly link climate with both Sunspots and Tidal Resonances. Figure 14 includes Michell and others (1979) tree-ring record of Midwest droughts and my composite (24 station) tree-ring record of the Colorado Plateaus. The Midwest record shows a very strong tendency to phase with the Hale Sunspot Cycle; the Colorado Plateaus record reflects a somewhat lesser tendency to do so. The Midwest record as first analyzed did not support the presence of the Nodal Tidal-force Cycle of 18.61 years amply evident in many Midwest climate records (Currie 1981 cf.) More refined analysis indicates, however, that this cycle is also present in the tree-ring record but masked by a phase reversal ca. AD 1780, which reversal completely canceled out its power-spectral signal (Burroughs 1992). The reversal coincides with a drought-turning point of the ca 70-year Subevent Cycle (See Figure 15 in Karlstrom 1999), which in turn is expressed in global temperatures and in the beach-ridge sequence of northern Lake Michigan(Delcourt and others 1996) and as wet/dry oscillations in China (Quan and Zhu 2002). Equally significant, the reversal is also concurrent with phase reversals in the Sunspot record (Figure 13) enhancing the impression of cause-effect relations in a complex non-linear dynamic system.


Figure 13 Sunspot numbers and the resonances of the subphase cycle. Sunspot record on timescales of the 24/1 (11.583-yr.) and 25/1 (11.12-yr.) resonances of the 278-year Subphase Cycle. Annual sunspot indices from NOAA, half-cycle smoothed by their 1/1 (ca. 1 1-yrs.), 2/1 (ca. 5-yr.) and 3/1 (ca. 3-yrs.) subharmonics and positioned according to their differing timescales. Note that the average solar cycle of 11.12-years strongly phases with the 25/1 resonance—except for the abrupt 1800phase changes near 1780 and 1989. On the other hand, the 24/1 wavelength appears slightly too long as reflected in the increasing divergence in timing towards the middle of the fundamental cycle and the progressive convergence towards beginning and end. Note that at the level of detailed analysis, correlation results are highly sensitive to minor difference in cycle length.

Figure 14 Tree-ring records and the 22.24-year Hale Sunspot Cycle. Solar tides, sunspots, and dendroclimatic records on timescale of the 2/1 (278-yr.), 4/1 (139-yr.) and 25/1 (22.24-yr.). Resonances of the 556-year phase cycle. Annual indices of sunspots and solar tides from Wood in Gribbin (1976); of Midwest tree-ring indices from Michell and others (1979) in Burroughs (1992); and of Colorado Plateaus tree-ring indices from Dean and Robinson (1978). Half-cycle smoothing on turning points of the 25/1 (22.24-yr.). Resonance that is in phase with the average Hale Double Sunspot (magnetic) Cycle. This, in turn, seemingly integrates solar/earth tidal phases with terrestrial climate through solar magnetic change (+ solar magnetism=generally increased earth rainfall).

Figure 15 Cosmic rays, geomagnetism, sunspots and the 11.12-year tidal resonance. Sunspots, cosmic rays and geomagnetism on timescale of the 25/1 (1 1.12-yrs.). Resonance of the Subphase Cycle and its 3/1 (3.7- yrs.) subharmonic indices of sunspots and two records of cosmic rays from Mercurio (2001). Note: (1) the strong negative correlation of cosmic rays with sunspot numbers, and therefore, in turn, the resulting positive correlation with the controlling variable geomagnetic field; and (2) the strong tendency for the cosmic ray records, but not the sunspots, to phase with the 3/1 resonance suggesting the superposed influence of tidal resonances on the geomagnetic field and terrestrial climate.

As shown in Figure 15, the single Sunspot Cycle is negatively correlated with Cosmic Rays and Tidal Forces but positively with Geomagnetism. Thus according to my paleoclimatic equation: Cool/Wet Climate = decreased Tidal Force increased Sunspot numbers = increased Geomagnetism = decreased Cosmic Rays. These correlations implicate direct physical linkages between climate and solar processes evidently acting through changes in Tidal Force and Geomagnetic fields at the decadal level.

Figure 16 shows correlation between Sunspots and Langbein and Slacks (1980) U.S. and regional runoff records. Beyond expectable regional variability; the Western, Central, and Eastern records and their U.S. composite show strong phasing with the Hale Sunspot Cycle. All the records also show interrupted series of the 7.42-year subharmonic which is alternately in and out of phase with the 11.12-yr. Sunspot Cycle, thus accentuating the double Hale Cycle. The ca. 7-year cycle, however, is not evident in the Sunspot record pointing to its terrestrial genesis as a function of tidal dynamics. Significantly, this cycle is also the expected beat product of a modulating 22- and 11-year Sunspot combination (Burroughs 1992), emphasizing in turn its possible solar connection.

Figure 17 compares the runoff records of the Southwest and Northwest regions of the American West relative to the Sunspot Cycle. Whereas Southwest runoff strongly phases with the magnetic sign of the Hale Cycle (÷ solar magnetism = increased runoff), Northwest runoff primarily shows opposite responses with (+) solar magnetism coinciding with intervals of decreased runoff. ‘Whereas runoff in the eastern and central regions of the U.S. is primarily in phase with Southwest runoff, that of the Northwest is largely out of phase. This strong tendency for anti phasing evidently reflects dominating northerly atmospheric sources (the Aleutian Low) for the Northwest, whereas the rest of the country lies largely in the path of moisture-bearing southwesterly storm tracks generated over the Pacific Ocean to the south (See Figure 18 below).

Figure 16 U.S. and regional runoff, sunspots and the 7.42-year tidal beat cycle. U.S. runoff and susnpot records on timescale of the 25/1 (1 1.12-yr.) resonance of the 278-year subphase cycle and its 2/1 (5.56-yr.) and 3/1 (3.71-yr.) resonances. Sunspot indices from NOAA; runoff indices from Langbein and Slack (1980). Half- cycle smoothing positioned on turning points of the 2/1 and 3/1 subharmonics of the average sunspot wavelength. Beyond expected levels of regional variabilities, note that the runoff records phase most strongly with the Hale double sunspot cycle and thus also with subharmonics of the Subphase cycle with syncpoint at 1711. Note further that all runoff records are dominated by a 7.42-year cycle which is alternately in- and out- of-phase with the 11-year cycle thus accentuating the double Hale Cycle. Significantly, the ca. 7-year cycle evidently is not part of the sunspot record suggesting that its genesis is strictly a product of resonance response within the terrestrial environment. Equally significant is the fact that a ca. 7-year cycle is the expected beat product of a modulating 22- and 11-year sunspot-cycle combination (Burroughs 1992).


Figure 17 Sunspots and Northwest and Southwest runoff records on timescale of the 25/1 (1 1.12-year). Sunspots and Northwest and Southwest Runoff records on timescale of the 25/1 (1l.l2-yr.) resonance of the Subphase Cycle and its 2/1 (5.56-yr.) and 3/1 (3.71-yr.) resonances. Annual indices from Langbein and Slack  (1982); annual sunspot indices from NOAA. Half-cycle smoothing on turning points of the 2/1 and 3/1 resonances. Note the strong tendency for Southwest flow to phase positively with the magnetic sign of the 22.24-year Hale Cycle, whereas Northwest flow tends to respond negatively.

Clue Search #5—Aleutian Low Pressure, Sunspots and Climate.
The Aleutian Low, and its counterpart, the Icelandic Low in the North Atlantic, dominate northern latitude atmospheric circulation which in turn steers the jet streams and the episodic excursions of polar and Arctic air southward. Thus, because of proximity, Northwest climate should most directly reflect Aleutian Low pressure changes whereas Southwest climate should primarily reflect anti phasing (see-saw) relations. As shown in Figure 18, this expectation is evidently realized. Despite strong phasing with both the single and double Sunspot Cycles, runs of the 7.42-year beat cycle in the Northwest show strong anti- phasing relative to those of the Southwest. In the Southwest, the beat cycle is in phase with the Hale Cycle, but in the Northwest it primarily oscillates out of phase with this cycle. Interruptions of the beat cycle in the pressure record thus occur where it is dominated by the opposing turning points of the longer Hale Cycle excepting, however, where it in turn dominates at ca AD 1977. Whether these response differences result from superposition of additional cycles, noise, non-linearity or other factors is not definable from the presented short records. These records, however, do strongly suggest general see-saw effects between separate pressure centers in the Pacific comparable to those associated with the Icelandic Low/Azores High in the Atlantic. It is perhaps significant that other researchers note AD 1977 as a regime shift in other types of climate records.


Figure 18 Aleutian low-pressure indices, sunspot cycles and the 7.4-year beat cycle. Aleutian-Low Pressure Indices on timescale of the 25/1 (11.12-yrs.). Resonance of the Subphase Cycle and its 2/1 (5.56-yr.) and 3/1 (3.71-yr.) resonances. Annual pressure indices from (Overland and others 1998) half-cycle smoothed and positioned on turning points of the 1/1, 2/1 and 3/1 resonances. Note: (1) The respectively strong to very strong phasing with the single and double sunspot cycles, strongly suggesting a direct linkage between Solar processes and Aleutian-Low pressure changes, and thus in turn with changing West Coast atmospheric circulation patterns and resulting climates; and (2) the interrupted phasing with the 7.42 beat resonance, which, in contrast to most runoff records, is in phase with the single rather than the double Hale sunspot cycle. Interruptions in the beat series generally occur at turning points where dominated by the ca. 22-year cycle except at 1977 where it dominates. The absence of the beat cycle in the sunspot record, and its antiphasing in different records reemphasize its generation in the terrestrial atmosphere and introduces compoundities in understanding its regional and/or process responses.

Summary and Conclusions
The presented data provide the following empirical clues to underlying processes and dynamics of Climatic Change:

1. Upper latitude Ice-age glaciations in both Hemispheres, along with Cosmic Rays and Geomagnetism, were evidently modulated by summer half-year insolation dominated by the ca. 40,000-year Obliquity Cycle. On the other hand, glaciations and associated climatic changes in middle to lower latitudes evidently paralleled the ca. 20,000-year Precessional Cycle characterized instead by opposing trends across the Equator;

2. The pervasive secondary oscillations recorded in most instrumental and paleoclimatic records reflect in part a complex system of globally synchronous harmonic tidal—force resonances that in the recognizably complex non-linear system of climatic change episodically undergo abrupt phase changes. These abrupt reversals result in interrupted series, or runs, of quasi-periodic cycles so typical of the climatic record. Parenthetically, these reversals (referred to as regime shifts by others) can seriously compromise the results of power-spectral analyses which assume consistent phase relations. Other limitations in defining cycles from power-spectral analyses are noted by DeBoer (1967) and by Burroughs (1992);

3. Correlation with both tidal force and sunspots implicates both tidal force and solar process as modulators and Geomagnetism strongly suggest that this integrated tidal and solar modulation involves, or directs, critical energy changes in the geomagnetic and atmospheric fields;

4. The combined data zero in on orbital perturbations of the solar system (varying both tidal force and insolation) as the operational energy system within which past climatic, volcanic and geomagnetic changes have been concurrently modulated or triggered (with occasional non-linear phase reversals) at yearly, decadal, centennial and millennial scales; and

5. The developing picture of the many natural variables underlying climatic change in effect severely restricts the validity of simply projecting average temperature trends of the past 200 or so years into the future as the sole product of man-produced “Greenhouse Gases”. The temporary trend towards cooling in the instrumental temperature record between AD 1940 and 1950 and the repeated pre-Industrial Revolution oscillations between distinctly warmer and cooler climate cannot be explained by man’s sporadic pollution of the atmosphere, but must instead be related to naturally induced changes in the terrestrial environment. One of the important tasks of the future is to quantitize anthropomorphic inputs versus natural inputs to the climatic changes of the past 200 years.

It is encouraging to recognize that major developments in understanding the physical world have been anticipated through empirical data long before the geophysics of underlying causal factors were fully appreciated. Three excellent examples come to mind: (1) Wegener’s and Taylor’s empirically derived Continental Drift Model which long anticipated developments in oceanography relating to mid-oceanic spreading centers, magnetic reversal patterns and Plate Tectonic mechanisms;
(2) photogeologic interpretation of the moon suggesting volcanic episodes (subsequently described from petrologic evidence as deep Magma Oceans) during pre-Mare highland phases of lunar development (Green 1967; Karlstrom 1972). Such early lunar volcanism was essentially excluded by Urey’s elegantly simple mathematical model of the moon’s figure which suggested instead an exclusively cold accretionary origin and, more specific for the thesis of this paper,
(3) Lord Kelvin’s authoritative but premature dismissal of sunspots and solar processes as a factor in climatic change based as it was on a too simplistic energy model that could not consider subsequently identified fundamental phenomena such as solar winds, the magnetosphere, geomagnetism, cosmic rays, tidal forces, feed-back or triggering responses, fractals and non-1inearity
To be sure, much work remains in refining our understanding of underlying physical linkages as well as of the dynamics of associated atmospheric circulation patterns resulting in characteristic regional variability. Nonetheless, significant clues are now available that should provide critical focus for further research, hopefully leading to the development of more sophisticated General Circulation Models (GCM) that incorporate the critical factors of cloud cover, geomagnetism, cosmic rays and tidal forcing, along with other definable natural changes such as in atmospheric C02, methane, and ozone.

Acknowledgements
Extension of my more than fifty years of paleoclimatic research beyond the boundaries of my own field observations in Alaska and the Southwest is dependent on the careful reconstruction of proxy and instrumental records by researchers working in other parts of the world. My appreciation is extended to all those whose records I have selected for cyclical analysis, particularly to those early researchers who pushed their creativity beyond then accepted limits of conventional wisdom. I accept their time series as valid. I take frill responsibility for any errors that may have crept into my extended interpretations.

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