Addendum II: Paleoclimate and the

 

Thor Karlstrom

Previous PACLIM papers (Karlstrom 1995, 1996, 1997) analyze numerous independently dated paleoclimatic records that evidently provide substantial empirical support for the Solar Insolation/Tidal Resonance Climate Model.  This model was first referred to as the Milankovich/Pettersson Climate Theory (Karlstrom 1961 cf).  The records presented in this paper also support the model and include unpublished time-frequency diagrams, long records published in Science and Quaternary Research after completion of my last paper, as well as records whose indices have been kindly provided by colleagues of the 1997 Santa Catalina PACLIM workshop.

Direct Empirical Test of the

 

 

The Solar Insolation/Tidal Resonance Model differs from the prevailing standard climate model of the Quaternary (Martinson et al 1987) in requiring:

·      Different ice-age histories for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres as these are modulated by opposing solar-insolation trends across the equator, rather than global synchronism in response to Northern Hemisphere continental glaciations modulated in turn solely by higher northern latitude summer solar-insolation trends; and

·      That the secondary paleoclimatic oscillations (those from a few years to several thousands of years in duration) in sensitive paleoclimatic records include a series of superposed harmonically related climatic cycles.  These appear to be globally synchronous, and apparently are in response to changing circulation patterns modulated in some fashion by tidal-force resonances in the atmosphere.

Thus, given accurately enough dated paleoclimatic records and sufficient global coverage, the prevailing standard climate model and the Solar Insolation/Tidal Resonance Model are amenable to direct testing since both propose specific but different timescales for climatic phasing.  The procedures for testing the validity of the models are, therefore, direct and straightforward.  Either independently dated terrestrial records from different latitudes show different primary trends that broadly parallel the local insolation trends in support of the Insolation/Tidal model, or they all, no matter what the latitude or hemisphere, broadly parallel the “standard” marine record that is specifically fine-tuned to N60^o Latitude insolation (see Figure 24).

The test for higher frequency oscillations is equally straightforward since the model proposes a series of temporally fixed subharmonic cycles, including an average 556-year cycle specifically referenced to Petterson’s (1914) last period of maximum tidal forces (AD 1433 or 517 BP).  Correlation between empirically-derived and dated natural climatic oscillations and theoretical cycle turning points is accepted as significant if series-matching is 70 percent or better for the cycle identified by wave length in years within the accompanying parentheses [eg, R=0.80 (556); R=0.72 (278)]

 

 

 

My analyses of time series generally follow conventional procedures of dating, plotting, and smoothing.  All records analyzed are independently dated and their timescales are accepted as published.  These records are replotted on timescales common to the model and consistently oriented according to the paleoclimatic equation of inferred Cool/Wet (up) versus inferred Warm/Dry (down).  All temperature and correlative records are, therefore, inverted relative to moisture and correlative records.  Similarly, presentation of bioclimatic records follows the conventions of Hevly and Karlstrom (1974) whereby in percent frequency diagrams, components of inferred dry or warm are subtracted from components of inferred wet of cold to maintain parallelism between negatively and positively correlated components.  To facilitate comparison of records with different amplitudes of oscillation, many are normalized by use of Z scores (standard deviation units).  The amplitudes of secondary oscillations are further amplified in some records by differencing (viz. derivatives).  Different levels of smoothing (or filtering) prove useful in clarifying cycle patterns and their phasings.  Half-cycle smoothing positioned on turning points of theoretical cycles (Karlstrom 1996) prove particularly useful in defining the phasing of secondary oscillations in highest resolution paleoclimatic records such as tree ring, varve series, archaeology, or historical accounts.  Stacking of multi- or single-component records is a common procedure that should enhance their signal/noise ratios.  Time-frequency analyses of dated basal contacts (Point Boundaries) of discontinuous stratigraphic sections (such as glacial or alluvial deposits with partial exposures and numerous disconformities) provide a statistical means for suggesting regional patterns and correlations of depositional histories.  All of these procedures are exemplified in one or more of the figures below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figures 1-4

Time-Frequency Diagrams of Basal-Contact Dates from

 

By clustering in restricted time intervals, the datasets suggest regional correlations among Glacial, Alluvial, Lacustrine, Eolean and Colluvial depositional events that are, in turn, strongly in phase with the 556-year Phase Cycle and with lesser, but still significant, tendencies for phasing with the 278-year Subphase Cycle.  Results of these analyses, since they relate to radiocarbon descriptions published through 1972, can be readily and incisively tested against datasets similarly selected from the thousands of basal-contact dates published since then.

 

Figure 1 shows radiocarbon dates selected from alpine glacial deposits in North America, South America, and Europe by Porter and Denton (1964) in deriving their twofold Neoglacial classification.  The dates generally cluster around the turning points of the higher frequency cycles inferred from south-central Alaska and collated chronostratigraphy (Karlstrom 1961 cf).  The dataset is consistent with the interpretation of common glacial histories modulated by the Phase and Subphase Cycles.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1     Time-frequency diagram of 14/C dates from North America, South America, and Europe on timescale of the 556-year Phase Cycle and its 2/1 (278-year) Subphase Resonance.  Radiocarbon dates listed by Porter and Denton (1967) in deriving their Neoglacial chronology of two main intervals of glaciations post-3300-years BP in age.  Note that in this time interval, their selected dates strongly cluster on cyclical boundaries of the Cook Inlet, Alaska, glacial and Southwest Alluvial classifications (top 5 rows), suggesting high-frequency depositional histories common with those of south-central Alaska and the Southwest.  Diagram from Figure 5, Column 7, in Karlstrom (1975).

Figure 2 shows radiocarbon dates selected from alpine glacial deposits in Alaska and Yukon Territory by Denton and Karlen (1972) in deriving a revised Neoglacial classification.  The dates again generally cluster around the turning points of the higher frequency cycles inferred from south-central Alaska and collated chronostratigraphic data, and again suggest modulation by the Phase and Subphase Cycles.

                   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 2     Time-Frequency diagram of Point Boundary dates from Southeastern Alaska and Yukon Territory on timescale of the 556-year Phase Cycle and its 2/1 (278-year) Subphase Resonance.  From dates selected by Denton and Karlen (1973) in deriving their revised Neoglacial classification.  Note that this second set of dates again strongly clusters near the Phase and Subphase boundaries of the Cook Inlet glacial and Southwest Alluvial classifications (Karlstrom 1961, 1988, 1995).  The statistical correlation is particularly compelling for the post-3.5 BP interval with the greatest density of dates in suggesting parallel, higher frequency depositional and climatic histories throughout this part of the Northwest – as also apparently confirmed by the expanded dataset shown in Figure 3.  Diagram from Figure 5, Column 4, in Karlstrom (1975).

 

Figure 3 shows radiocarbon dates from basal-contacts of Glacial, Alluvial, Lacustrine, Eolean, and Colluvial (GALEC) deposits.  Samples selected by the author from the radiocarbon literature through 1972 (Karlstrom 1975) using the following criteria: (1) description in the literature sufficiently precise to identify the sample as associated with basal contacts of the above types of deposits; (2) only dates accepted by the collector as uncontaminated and stratigraphically defined; (3) only dates derived from organic carbon, charcoal, and wood (dates based solely on bone, carbonate and humic components were not included because of their greater potential for contamination by both younger or older carbon); and (4) no dates accepted with unusually large sigmas of counting error.  The expanded database fortifies the impression of common Neoglacial deposition histories throughout western North America.  The GALEC data also suggest correlative events in different depositional environments according to the following paleoclimatic equations:  Glacial advance = valley-bottom aggradation accompanying rising water tables (providing a repeatedly renewed supply of exposed sediment for wind transportation and a marginal deposition of loess and dune sand) = rising lake levels = slope instability and enhanced colluviation = Cooler and Wetter climate; conversely, glacial retreat = stream-channel dissection accompanying lowering water tables, valley-bottom vegetation and soil formation (which drastically reduces available sediment supply for wind transportation) = lowering lake levels = slope stability and less colluviation = Warmer and Drier climate.  For a more detailed analysis of these interacting geologic processes see Karlstrom (1988)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 3     Time-frequency diagram of Northwest Glacial and GALEC basal-contact dates on timescale of the 556-year Phase Cycle and its 2/1 (278-year) Subphase Resonance, Basal-contact dates selected from the radiocarbon literature, mainly from Radiocarbon 1-15, for Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, Alaska, Yukon Territory, and Alberta (Karlstrom 1975).  Glacial dates are those under Glacial till and outwash.  GALEC dates are those under Glacial deposits plus those under Alluvial, Lacustrine, Eolean, and Colluvial deposits.  Note that the expanded statistical database amplifies the cluster pattern shown by the glacial record and extends it back to 5500 years BP.  This suggests generally parallel depositional histories in differing depositional environments according to the following paleoclimatic equation:  Cool/Wet climate = glacial deposition contemporaneous with valley-bottom aggradation (providing a ready sediment supply for wind transportation and loess/dune deposition), with rising lakes and lacustrine deposition, and with increased colluviation resulting from water-saturated slope materials under accelerated freeze and thaw activity.  Conversely, basal contacts as marked by soil, diastem, and associated vegetation = generally nondepositional environments with lower water table, drainage entrenchment (gullying), and bottom-land soil formation during preceding Warmer/Drier intervals.  For similar statistical correlation of Southwest Alluvial, Eolean, and Colluvial chronostratigraphy, see Karlstrom (1988).

 

Figure 4 is a summary of time-frequency analyses of radiocarbon dates from western North America.  The figure includes the time-frequency diagrams of Figures 1-3, along with time-frequency diagrams of selected basal-contact (Point Boundary) dates from the Midwest and Southwest.  The expanded database from an extended region and its strong correlation with smaller datasets, including sets independently selected by other researchers, strongly suggests that the data-selection criteria are objective and valid.  The general replication of cluster patterns essentially requires that most of the selected basal-contact dates fall in the 100-year intervals designated by their mean conventional radiocarbon ages.  These statistical correlations with the Phase and Subphase Cycles are further replicated by other types of high-resolution proxy records as dated historically, by tree-rings, as well as by radiocarbon (examples are provided in Figures 6, 7, 17, 18, 19, and 20).  Note that because of dating uncertainties, radiocarbon analysis is not taken below 100-year class intervals, which in effect filters out all cycles less than 200-years in duration.  Analysis of shorter cycles therefore requires the use of more precisely dated records such as may be provided by tree rings, varves, and historical accounts (for examples see Figures 5, 6, 7, 17, and 18).  The North American Stratigraphic Code (NASC) in 1983 formalized the use of dated basal contacts in chronostratigraphic analyses by defining them as Point Boundaries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                       

 

Figure 4     Summary of time-frequency analyses of basal-contact dates from North America plotted per century on timescale of the 556-year Phase Cycle and its 2/1 (278-year) resonance.  Data selected mainly from Radiocarbon 1-15 according to the following criteria.  Dates on wood or organic carbon associated with buried soils and diastems as described and accepted as valid by the contributing researchers.  Many of the published dates are excluded because of too vague stratigraphic description or because of dating on materials (carbonates, bone, and humic components) more likely to be contaminated by older or younger carbon.  Finally, no dates were included with unusually large sigmas of counting error.  Beyond strengthening the statistical correlation between depositional histories and the Tidal-Resonance Model throughout much of western North America, the replication of cluster patterns essentially requires that most of the selected dates fall in the 100-year intervals designated by their mean conventional radiocarbon ages.  The North American Stratigraphic Code (NASC 1983) formalized the use of basal-contact dates in chronostratigraphic analyses by defining them as Point Boundaries.

           

           

 

 

 

Figures 5 and 6

 

            At high frequencies, volcanism correlates positively with aerosols and with high-frequency tidal resonances but negatively with transitory cooler temperatures.  At lower frequencies, however, increased volcanism evidently correlates with generally warmer/drier climate on turning points of the Phase and Subphase Cycles.  These correlations strongly suggest that increased tidal stresses on the lithosphere can trigger volcanic processes toward milder climates.

 

            Figure 5 is a time-frequency diagram of historically recorded major volcanic eruptions, which positively correlates with the Aerosol record as well as with high-frequency tidal resonances, but which negatively correlates with the global temperature record.  This weak negative correlation is compatible with other evidence suggesting transitory cooling during, and a few years following, major volcanic eruptions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 5     Correlation of Volcanic Frequency, Aerosol Depth, and Temperature with Tidal Resonances on timescale of the 11.583-year Cycle and its 2/1 (5.791-year) resonance.  Temperature indices are from James and Wigley (1990); volcanic frequency and werosol depth indices are from Bryson and Goodman (1980).  Smoothing is by 3-year running means.  Note the weak to strong tendencies of the volcanic frequency and aerosol depth records to phase with tidal resonances, whereas the temperature record shows a tendency for cooler temperatures during volcanic intervals.  This negative correlation, although weak, appears compatible with other evidence for transitory cooling by ejecta and aerosol loading of the atmosphere during 1 or 2 years following major volcanic eruptions.

 

Figure 6, consisting of time-frequency diagrams of radiocarbon-dated volcanic deposits (lava and pyroclastic), shows a strong tendency to cluster during the Warm/Dry epicycles of the Phase and Subphase cycles.  Compare with Figures 1-4 and 17-20.  The statistical correlation with turning points of tidal resonances strongly suggests that increased tidal stress acts as a triggering mechanism affecting timing of volcanic events nearing endogenetic eruptive thresholds.  However, because of the statistical nature of the correlation and the presumed mechanism of triggering variable endogenetic conditions, predictions of the timing and magnitude of specific volcanic events by changing tidal forces remains uncertain.  The same uncertainty applies equally to tidal-stress predictions of individual earthquakes, but, as with the common practice of probability weather predictions, such predictions may prove useful in broadly estimating intervals of increased or decreased probability of occurrence in a given area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 6     Time-frequency diagrams of global and North American volcanic activity on timescale of the 556-year Phase Cycle and its 2/1 (278-year) resonance.  Volcanic ratio indices are from Bryson and Goodman (1980); number indices are from Karlstrom (1975).  One-hundred-year class intervals centered in centuries act as low-passfilter restricting analyses to cycles with wavelengths of more than 200 years.  Note strong tendency for clustering during the warm/dry epicycles of the Phase Cycle and the lesser, but still positive, tendencies during those of the Subphase Cycle.  The similarity of results from independently selected datasets strongly suggests that tidal resonances play a significant role in triggering volcanic activity. Further, the positive correlation suggesting increased volcanism during warm/dry epicycles minimizes the importance of transitory cooling (and local warming) of the atmosphere by volcanic ejecta as a causal factor in these longer-term climatic changes (contrast with the higher frequency correlations in Figure 5).  To predict local volcanic events solely by tidal intensity, however, is highly uncertain because of the statistical nature of the correlation and because of the presumed triggering mechanism that requires endogenetic threshold conditions that can vary appreciably among volcanic centers.  The figure combines the datasets shown in Figures 27 and 28 of Karlstrom (1997).

 

Figure 7

 

Isotope temperature and precipitation since AD1500 inferred by Ku et al (1998) from 18/O indices of a stalagmite in Shihua Cave of northern China.  Dated isotope indices were kindly supplied by Ku (written communication 1997).  The record is consistent in climatic sign with instrumental records and with the historically recorded flood- and frost-frequency records of China (indices from Bradley 1982).  Particularly impressive is the correlation of the ~35-year precipitation cycle with a high frequency component (34.75-years: 4/1 of the 139-year Event Cycle) of the Tidal Resonance Model.  This cycle is evidently also expressed in the Chinese decadal record of historical frosts (Karlstrom 1997) and is referred to as the Bruckner Cycle because of Bruchner’s earlier identification of a similar-length cycle in lake-level and precipitation records (de Boer 1967).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

           

Figure 7     Chinese frost, flood, and oxygen-isotope records on timescale of the Event Cycle and its 4/1 (34.75-year) and 12/1 (11.583-year) resonances.  Isotope indices of lamination-counting and radiocarbon-dated stalagmite of Shihua Cave, Beijing, China from Ku at al (1998).  Historically dated Chinese flood and frost indices are from Bradley (1982).  Ku et al (1998) interpret the primary trends of their isotope record as primarily reflecting temperature, the secondary decadal trends as primarily reflecting precipitation, and with decreasing temperature and increasing precipitation correlating with decreasing isotope values.  Note the climatic compatibility of this isotope record with that of the flood (precipitation) and frost (temperature) records and with harmonic elements of the Tidal Resonance Model.  Particularly note the strong tendency for in-phase relationships of the frost and isotope records with the 4/1 (34.75-year) resonance, suggesting that an increase of frosts corresponds to a decrease in ¹⁸O caused by precipitation could cause the long-term decline of temperature.  The 35-year cycle is defined as the Bruckner Cycle because at the beginning of the century, Bruckner defined a similar length cycle from precipitation and lake-level records.  That this cycle is real and not an artifact of analyses is supported by the presented proxy records and by its phasing with a subharmonic element of the Tidal Resonance Model.

 

 

                                    Figures 8-12

                                    Paleoclimatic Records from

                                    Middle to Lower Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and

                                    Correlation with Similar Latitude Solar Insolation Trends

                                    ____________________________________________________________

 

Primary trends of numerous paleoclimatic records in North America strikingly parallel, with appropriate but variable lags, the local solar insolation trends that largely reflect precessional controls between 35^o and 45^o north latitudes.  These correlations strongly suggest modulation of terrestrial climate directly by local solar insolation rather than by in-phase responses to Northern Hemisphere continental glaciations modulated by higher northern latitude summer solar-insolation trends.

 

Figure 8 shows multicomponent paleoclimatic record from Owens Lake Basin, California.  Component indices dated between 55,000- and 10,000-years BP from Benson et al (1996).  Main trends of record parallel those of the local (N35^o latitude) solar insolation curve and with higher lakes and glacial advances correlating with insolation minima.  As reconstructed in the figure, high lakes and glaciations occurred during intervals of both cooler and wetter climate.  This differs from the interpretation of Benson et al (1996) of glaciations and pluvial as occurring during cooler and drier climates.  In this they agree with Gallaway’s (1970) and Brackenridge’s (1978) interpretation of Pleistocene climates, but not with those of Wells (1979), Street and Grove (1979), Woolfenden (1997: see Fig. 11), Menking (1977), and others who also consider that Southwest pluvial and glaciations occurred concurrently under generally wetter and cooler climatic conditions.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 8     Correlation of Owens Lake Basin paleoclimatic record with those of Walker Lake, Arizona, Sierra Nevada glaciations, and with comparable latitude Precessional Solar Insolation on timescale of the 336-year Substage Cycle and its 2/1 (1668-year) and 3/1 (1112-year) resonances.  Radiocarbon-dated Owens Lake Basin isotope (18/O), magnetic intensity (X), total inorganic carbon (TIC), and total organic carbon (TOC) indices of Benson et al (1996) replotted at 613 year intervals.  Radiocarbon-calibrated, chlorine-36 exposure ages of Sierra Nevada moraines are from Phillips et al (1996).  Radiocarbon-dated Walker Lake pollen indices are from Hevly (1988 in Karlstrom 1997).  Note that the primary trends of these records strikingly parallel, and appropriately lag, the mid-latitude Precessional Insolation trends (Milankovitch 1941), strongly suggesting cause-and-effect relationships.  As reconstructed, (-) Solar Insolation = Wet/Cool climate = Glacial Advance = High Lake = Low Timberline = (+) Magnetic intensity and 18/O, but (-) TOC and TIC resulting from organic concentration during low closed drainage phases, and organic dilution by mineral sedimentation (increasing magnetic intensity) and overflow during higher outlet phases.  These paleoclimatic inferences differ from those of Benson et al (1996), who argue for lower lakes during cooler and drier period of glacial advance but are similar to those of Woolfenden (1997) and Menking et al (1997), who provide the most recent interpretations of Owens Lake core data.  Numbering of Precessional Minima from Figure 25.         

 

Figure 9 shows correlation of the Owens Lake record with other Southwest pluvial records.  The primary trends of the Owens Lake record strikingly parallel those of Street and Grove’s (1979) time-frequency diagram of dated regional lake phases and of Currey and Oviat’s (1988) detailed reconstruction of the Lake Bonneville record.  This parallelism of lake-level oscillations in large and small lake basins and general phasing with local insolation trends is striking and suggests modulation by summer insolation as well as common response to changing regional ground water levels.  Street and Grove’s and Currey and Oviat’s pluvial records also show weak to strong tendencies of tendencies of secondary oscillations to phase with subharmonic elements of the Tidal Resonance Model as discussed in Karlstrom (1997).  As shown in Figure 14 below, the stacked Owens Lake record also suggests similar higher frequency tendencies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 9     High-resolution pluvial records of the Southwest on timescale of the 3336-year Substage Cycle and its 2/1 (1668-year) resonance.  Southwest lake-phase indices are from Street and Grove (1979); Owens Lake pluvial and glacial indices from Benson et al (1996) and Phillips et al (1996); and Lake Bonneville indices are from Currey and Oviat (1985).  The Owens Lake glaciopluvial record as reconstructed strikingly parallels the other two pluvial records and positions the 16,000- to 13,000-year gap concurrent with both the abrupt lake lowering about 15,500 years BP and the following abrupt rise above the Red Pass threshold about 14,000 years BP in the Bonneville record.  Correlation with the OEns Lake record indicates that the undated Bear River Pluvial may have been contemporaneous with the Lake Tahoe glaciopluvial and thus date about 45,000 years BP.

 

Figure 10 shows correlation of Southwest pluvial records of Figure 9 with other high resolution North America paleoclimatic records located between latitudes 35^o and 45^o.  The added records (glaciations inferred from Ionium/Uranium-dated hot springs deposits in Yellowstone National Park; precipitation from radiocarbon-dated Midwest pollen record; isotope-temperature from Ionium/Uranium-dated cave carbonate of Iowa; and changing timberlines from radiocarbon-dated pollen records of Idaho and Arizona) also appear to be similarly modulated by the local insolation trends.

 

Figure 11 shows the bioclimatic (pollen) record of Owens Lake, which provides paleoclimatic evidence back to 155,000 years BP.  Dating by radiocarbon, tephrochronology and magnetic reversals (Biskof et al 1997).  Dated pollen indices were kindly provided by Wallace Woolfenden (written communication 1997).  As interpreted by Woolfenden (1977) and as reconstructed in the figure, the pollen data apparently record lowering timberline and rising lake levels during cooler and wetter climatic conditions.  Although there is a strong tendency for the record to phase with the local solar insolation curve, this tendency appears in part to be obscured by a stronger tendency to phase with elements of the Tidal-Resonance Model. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 10   Correlation of N35^o-45^o latitude records of pollen, pluvial, glacial, precipitation, and temperature with changing solar insolation belts on timescale of the 3336-year Substage Cycle.  Paleoclimatic indices are from indicated sources; Solar Insolation indices are from Milankovitch (1941).  Note the progressive shift in timing of insolation maxima from higher latitude.  Obliquity troughs to the shorter wavelength lower latitude Precessional troughs plus the strong tendency for corresponding shifts in paleoclimatic trends depending on latitude.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 11   Bioclimatic record of Owens Lake, California, on timescale of the ~10,000-year Cycle and its 3/1 (3336-year) Substage resonance.  Dated indices are from Woolfenden (1997 and written communication 1997), who notes the general correlation between higher lake levels and glacial advances during climatic changes from warm/dry to cooler and wetter conditions.  As reconstructed above, higher lake levels coincide with lower timberlines, glacial advances and with generally cooler and wetter climates.  Note also the weak to strong tendencies for the primary and secondary trends to phase with the timing of harmonic elements of the Tidal Resonance Model, along with some tendency for troughs to deepen concurrent with precessional maxima about 30,000, 65,000, 85,000, 105,000, 125,000?, and 145,000 years BP (see Figure 25).

 

Figure 12 is a bioclimatic record of Lake Biwa, Japan, and correlation with similar-latitude (N35^o latitude) solar insolation.  Numerical indices of Biogenic Silica Content (BSC) and Eolian Quartz Content (EQC) from Xiao et al (1997a, b); their dating by regional tephrochronology.  Te authors correlate the Lake Biwa record with the “standard” marine record of Martinson et al (1987) as this fine-tuned to the N60^o latitude solar insolation curve (see Figures 23 and 25).  With an apparent lag of about 6000 years, the pluvial record better parallels with the concept of terrestrial climate modulation by local (but latitudinally changing) solar insolation, instead of the conventional concept of synchronous global trends dominated by Northern Hemisphere continental glaciations modulated by higher northern latitude summer insolation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 12   Lake Biwa, Japan, bioclimatic record and local Solar Insolation trends on timescale of the 3336-year Substage Cycle.  Lake biwa indices of Biogenic Silica Content (BSC) are from appendix in Xiao et al (1997a), of Eolean Quartz Content (EQC) from Table 2 in Xiao et al (1997b); dating by correlation to regional volcanic ash series.  Note: (1) the lagged parallelism of the primary bioclimatic trends with those of the local, primarily precessional, Solar Insolation; and (2) the weak, but evidently significant, tendency of the secondary bioclimatic trends to phase with turning points of the 3336-year Substage Cycle.  Xiao et al correlate the Biwa record with Martinson’s “standard” marine chronology (see Figure 23).  As shown above, a somewhat better correlation is apparent with the local insolation record.  Essentially similar results obtained with their Biogenic Silicate Flux (BSF) and Eolean Quartz Flux (EQF) indices.

 

Figure 13

Paleoclimatic Record from Upper Northern Hemisphere Latitude

 

The Greenland GISP@ ice-core record (N70^o latitude) of isotope temperature (18/O) and methane is shown as dated and correlated by Brooks et al (1997) with the N60^o latitude solar insolation trends.  Not surprising because of common correlations, their record strikingly parallels my ~N60^o latitude glacial record of Cook Inlet, Alaska.  (Karlstrom 1961, 1964).  Both increased isotope temperature and increased methane content correlate with solar insolation maxima, strongly suggesting the importance of natural (nonathropogenic) climatic processes in determining varying amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.  Similar correlations between solar insolation, glaciation, temperature, and greenhouse gas CO2 is recorded in the Antarctic Vostok ice core (see Figure 25).  The historical increase in atmospheric CO@ and temperature, since it occurs during a natural cyclical trend toward warming (see Figure 17 for one example), can in large part result from natural processes instead of solely from pollution of the atmosphere since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 13   Correlation of Greenland GISP@ ice-core record (N 70^o L) with higher latitude solar insolation on timescale of the 3336-year Substage Cycle and its x12 (40,032-year) superharmonic.  Isotope and methane indices and dating of marine Heinrich (cold) events and terrestrial Bølling/Allerød (warm) and Younger Dryas (cold) events by correlation with the CISP@ timescale from Brooks et al (1996).  Their ice-core indices are replotted at centered 500-year intervals filtering out secondary cycles of less than 1000 years and further smoothed to emphasize longer-term trends.  Brooks et al correlate their GISP2 record with the N60^o latitude solar insolation curve, which is dominated by the Obliquity Cycle as slightly modified by precessional trends that predominate at lower latitudes (see Figure 25).  Note: (1) the striking parallelism with the comparable latitude Cook Inlet glacial record; (2) the generally positive correlation between glacial climate and the “greenhouse” methane gas, which emphasizes the important role of past climatic (nonanthropogenic) changes in governing the gaseous content of the atmosphere (also see Karlstrom 1995); and (3) the lack of correlation between GISP2 secondary oscillations and the Substage Cycle, which may result largely from the remaining uncertainties in the GISP2 timescale.  The degree of age discrepancy resulting from correlations to the radiocarbon timescale or to the GISP2 timescale is analyzed in Figure 14.

 

 

 

Figure 14

Marine Heinrich and Terrestrial Dryas Events

 

In considering correlation with marine Heinrich events dated by the Greenland GISP2 ice-core record, Benson et al (1996) note anomalous phasing between secondary oscillations in different components of their Lake Owens record, as well as unresolved uncertainties in ice-core dating.  They conclude, therefore, that though both paleoclimate records apparently demonstrate a series of real secondary cold/warm oscillations, specific correlations of Owens Lake events with Heinrich events are currently untenable.  Brooks et al (1996), on the other hand, through pattern matching with the GISP2 record provide dates for the secondary Heinrich and Dryas events that differ dramatically (2000 to 8000 years older) from their radiocarbon ages.  Two main uncertainties apply to correlations with the GISP2 timescale:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 14   Marine Heinrich (cold) / Oeschger/Dansgaard (warm) events and the Owens Lake, ice core GISP2 and Dryas pollen records on timescale of the 3336-year Substage Cycle and its 3/1 (1112-year) resonance.  Owens Lake indices and Heinrich/Oeschger marine indices are from Benson et al (1996), replotted at 613-year intervals; GISP2 ice core indices are from Brooks et al (1996), replotted at 500-year intervals; and indices of two records of the classic Dryas pollen series from Switzerland and Denmark (see Figure 20).  Note: (1) the parallelism between the two Dryas seauences; (2) the generally positive correlation of the radiocarbon-dated pollen, lake and marine records among themselves and in phasing with the Substage Cycle; and (3) the dramatic differences (2000-80000 years in dating of the Heinrich and Dryas events resulting from pattern matching to the GISP2 curve.  Two main uncertainties are involved: (1) pattern matching, which is particularly uncertain between records with differing response functions, sample spacing, smoothing, primary trends, and distribution of distorting noise; and (2) unresolved discrepancies in timescales obtained from different ice cores.

 

·      The use of pattern matching, which is particularly uncertain when applied to proxy records from different environments and with differing response functions, irregular sample spacing, different levels of smoothing, and variable noise/signal ratios; and

 

·      The remaining discrepancies in timescales obtained from different ice-cores.

 

As shown in the figure, stacking of the component parts of the Owens Lake record provides a record of secondary oscillations, many of which phase with the Heinrich and Dryas events and with turning points of the 3336-year Substage Cycle.  No such correlation with the secondary oscillations of the GISP2 record is evident.  Stacking is a procedure that should cancel out chance trends and, thus, enhance the signal/noise ratio in multiple component records.

 

Figures 15 and 16

Paleoclimatic Record from Southern Hemisphere Latitude 55^o

and Correlation with Similar Latitude Solar Insolation Trends,

the Precessional Elements of which are 180 Degrees Out of

 

Figure 15 is a bioclimatic record of HArberton Bog, Tierra del Fuego between 14,000 years BP and the present, and correlation with the S60^o latitude solar insolation curve.  Dated indices kindly supplied by Markgraf (written communication 1997).  The primary trends of the record parallel those of the local solar insolation but with an apparent lag of about 4000 years.  The record is thus out of phase with records from counterpart Northern Hemisphere latitudes (also see Figures 24 and 25).  On the other hand, the secondary oscillations of the record evidently phase strongly with both the Stadial and Phase Cycles or generally synchronous with Northern Hemisphere counterparts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 15   Bioclimatic record of Harberton Bog, tierra del Fuego, and local solar insolation trends on timescale of the 1112-year Stadial Cycle and its 2/1 (556-year) resonance.  Numerical indices of Harberton Bog provided by Markgraf (written communication 1997).  Summer half-year insolation indices are from Milankovitch (1941).  Note: (1) the broad parallelism and appropriate response lag of the primary moisture trends with the local solar insolation record, which at these higher latitudes reflect more and more the Obliquity Cycle over that of the Precessional cycle (see Figure 25); and (2) the strong tendency of the secondary moisture trends to phase with turning points of the 1112-year Stadial Cycle and its 2/1 (556-year) resonance.  Figure 16 shows that the isotope-temperatures of the Harberton Bog sequency are negatively correlated with the moisture record or consistent with the paleoclimatic equation of cool/wet versus warm/dry.

 

 Figure 16 shows the moisture and isotope-temperature record of Harberton Bog, Tierra del Fuego.  Indices dated between 13,500 and 10,500 years BP from Markgraf and Kenny (1997), who note the general negative correlation between effective moisture and derived temperatures, or consistent with the paleoclimatic equation of cooler and wetter versus warmer and drier.  The temperature record evidently phases strongly with the Stadial and Phase Cycles and less so, but still significantly, with the Subphase Cycle.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 16   Pollen and isotope-temperature records of Harberton Bog (54^o53^oS), Tierra del Fuego, on timescale of the 556-year Phase Cycle and its 2/1 (278-year) resonance.  Radiocarbon-dated indices from MArkgraf and Kenny (1997), who identify mesic steppe components as wetter indices and the negatively correlated heath as drier indicators.  Note the broad parallelism of these wet/dry indicators with the inverted sign of the isotope-temperature record.  Also note the very strong tendency for the temperature record to phase with the 1112-year Stadial cycle and the lesser but still significant tendencies with its 2/1 (556-year) and 4/1 (278-year) resonances.

 

Figures 17-25

Selected Paleoclimate Records Discussed in

Previous Papers that Best Illustrate Elements of the

 

These figures are included for convenient reference and comparison with the new records analyzed in this paper.  Figure 17 shows North American Southwest tree rings, the 139-year Event Cycle, and phasing with the 278-year Subphase Cycle.  Figure 18 shows the California marine record, collated Japanese tree rings, and the 278-year Subphase Cycle.  Figure 19 shows the Alaska bioclimate, the 556-year Phase Cycle, and its 2/1 (278-year) resonance.  Figure 20 shows European paleoclimatic records, the 1112-year Stadial Cycle, and its 2/1 (556-year) and 4/1 (278-year) resonances.  Figure 21 presents the equatorial Pacific marine record and the 1112-year Stadial Cycle since 18,000 years BP.  Figure 22 shows the Yukon Territory bioclimate, the 3336-year Substage Cycle, and its 3/1 (1112-year) resonance since 30,000 years BP.  Figure 23 shows two “standard” glacial meltwater marine records fine-tuned to N60^o latitude solar insolation.  Figure 24 presents Northern and Southern Hemisphere glacial records and apparent correlation to hemispherically opposing solar-insolation trends.  Figure 25 shows records illustrating latitudinal solar-insolation control on terrestrial climates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 17   Summary evidence for a dendroclimatic cycle in phase with the 139-year Event Cycle.  Half-cycle smoothing positioned on cycle turning points.  Trend correlations, temperature as well as precipitation, range from 0.75 to >0.90, or within the upper range of tree-ring/climate calibrations.  This suggests that the cycle is real, regionally robust, and related to changing atmospheric dynamics and circulation patterns.  Similar half-cycle analyses of other records may define differing regional patterns and responses, advancing understanding of climatic/biologic process.  Modified from Figure 10 in Karlstrom (1995).  PB = Point Boundary (clustering of Southwest alluvial basal-contact dates) from Karlstrom (1988).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 18   Varve-dated marine record of the Santa Barbara Basin, California, on timescale of the 139-year Event cycle and its 3/1 (46.33-year) resonance.  Indices from Pandolfi et al (1980) replotted at 20-year intervals.  Original indices collated with a Japanese tree-ring record that reflects cycles of 273±20 years (Uranium) and 271±11 years (D/H).  The Santa Barbara core record demonstrates a similar-length marine cycle that is in phase with the 278-year Subphase Cycle.  These correlations suggest that more organic carbon was supplied during major southwest wet (depositional) intervals than during major dry intervals.  The record also shows a strong tendency to phase with the ~46-year resonance and a stronger tendency with its double (93-year) Gleisberg Cycle.  Analysis by half-cycle smoothing positioned on turning points of the 139-year Event Cycle.  From Figures 12 and 15 in Karlstrom (1995).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 19   Bioclimatic record of Homer Bog, Cook Inlet, Alaska, on timescale of the 1112-year Stadial Cycle and its 2/1 (556-year) Phase Resonance and 4/1 (278-year) Subphase Resonance.  Pollen indices from Heuser (1965) time-calibrated by basal date listed in Karlstrom (1964).  The higher frequency Girdwood Bog record is schematically plotted as interpreted climatically in Karlstrom (1961).  Because of lesser sensitivity and wider sampling intervals, Homer Bog shows the strongest tendency to oscillate in phase with the 556-year Phase Cycle and positions the driest Postglacial interval contemporaneous with that in the Southwest Altithermal (AC) and in the late Atlantic of northern Europe (see Figure 20).  Modified from Figure 18 in Karlstrom (1995).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 20   Cook Inlet bioclimate and collated European high-resolution records on timescale of the 1112-year Stadial Cycle and its 2/1 (556-year) and 4/1 (278-year) resonances.  (A) Cook Inlet Homer Bog.  (B) Agarode Bog/hydrology of  Sweden (Nilsson 1964).  (C) Alps timberline fluctuations (Beug 1982).  (D) Danish Bølling Bog (in Karlstrom 1961).  (E) Swiss Wachseldorn Bog (Oeschger et al 1980), which though sampled at shorter intervals replicates with some fidelity the classic Late Glacial Dryas sequence of Denmark in (D).  Data from Figures 2 and 3 in Karlstrom (1996).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 21   Equatorial Pacific ocean-core record (and derivatives) on timescale showing glacial subdivisions on turning points of the 3336-year Substage Cycle and its 3/1 Stadial (1112-year) Resonance.  Centered 500-year isotope indices from Berger et al (1987); dating by fine-tuning to Solar Insolation curve.  Alaska glacial chronology and correlatives from Karlstrom (1961, 1976b).  Lower row = classic bioclimatic (pollen) subdivision of Late Glacial and Postglacial time as radiocarbon dated in Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland (compare with terrestrial records in Figure 20).  The derivatives suggest that secondary trends of glacial melting (18/O) and surface water temperature (¹³C) were strongly in phase with the Stadial Cycle during the last 18,000 years.  Note also that the classic European Dryas sequence and North American glacial events are evidently clearly recorded by contemporaneous meltwater and surface water temperature oscillations in these ocean records.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 22   Bioclimatic record of Antifreeze Pond, Yukon Territory, Canada, on timescale of the 3336-year Substage Cycle and its 3/1 (1112-year) Stadial Resonance.  Pollen indices from Rampton (1970).  Alaska glacial classification and cyclical subdivision from Karlstrom (1961).  Trend analysis suggests a strong response to the Substage Cycle and, where the sampling interval is sufficiently close, to the Stadial Cycle.  Modified from figure 24 in Karlstrom (1995).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 23   Two “standard” marine Ice Age chronologies on timescale of the Obliquity InsolationCycle (~40,000 years) and its 2/1 (~20,000 years) resonance assuming a response lag of about 4,500 years (Karlstrom 1961).  Isotope indices of an equatorial Pacific Ocean core are from Chuey et al (1987); the equatorial Atlantic record is from Martinson et al (1987).  Both chronologies are fine-tuned to the Milankovitch N60^o latitude Climatic Model assuming corresponding response lags.  The two records differ mainly in (1) out-of-phase relationships about 225,000 years BP, and (2) relative glacial amplitudes of the last 125,000 years.  These differences suggest either heterogeneities in the global record or remaining difficulties with dating procedures and sample mixing.  Note the tendency for near in-phase oscillations with the Obliquity 2/1 (~20,000-year) resonance.  Most Quaternary researchers continue to correlate their terrestrial paleoclimatic records with Martinson et al isotope record on the assumption that it provides a global climatic signal.  Scores of chronostratigraphic records presented in this and previous papers appear to contradict this assumption and to support the Solar Insolation/Tidal Resonance Model, which requires opposing longer-term climatic trends in the two hemispheres but globally synchronous secondary climatic oscillations.  From figure 28 in Karlstrom (1995).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 24   Correlation of highest-resolution Northern and Southern Hemisphere glacial records with marine chronostratigraphy (glacioeustatic sea levels) and, in turn, with opposing hemispheric processional trends and latitudinal displacements of the Caloric Equator (presumably also of the Intertropical Convergence Zone).  Both Richmond (1976) and Terasmae and Dreimanis (1976) see a remarkable coincidence between their dated Northern Hemisphere glacial records and the dated sea level records.  These correlations support the concept of glacioeustacy but not necessarily that of interhemispheric climatic synchrony.  This is because the much greater volume of glacial ice in the Northern Hemisphere could mask opposing meltwater trends in the interconnected oceans of the Southern Hemisphere (Karlstrom 1996).  Glapperton et al (1996) see no clear correlation of their Southern Hemisphere glacial record with that of the Northern Hemisphere.  Moreover, their B/C and D/C morainal complexes as bradly dated between 45,000, 25,000 years BP and the present more closely parallel the local Southern Hemisphere precessional trends as these are displaced 10,000 years from their Northern Hemisphere counterparts and correlative glacial events.  Insolation curves from Milankovitch (1941).  From Figure 21 in Karlstrom (1997).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 25   Latitudinal control of terrestrial climate records.  These dated records seemingly parallel more closely the local latitudinal insolation trends than the dated records of other latitudes.  If these climate records are representative of their respective latitudinal belts, the conventional concept of interhemispheric climatic synchrony dominated by high-latitude Northern Hemisphere insolation must be reassessed as a basis for Ice age correlations and global paeloclimatic reconstructions (Karlstrom 1961).  Modified from Figure 26 in Karlstrom (1997).  Records discussed in this paper (Figures 8-16, 24) substantially strengthen the case for latitudinal insolation controls and for opposite phasing of longer-term climatic trends across the Equator.  Modified from Figure 29 in Karlstrom (1995).

 

 

 

 

Insofar as the presented new data generally fortify previous interpretations and correlations with the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model, my conclusions remain the same as those presented in previous papers.  Similar qualifications, however, are also in order.  In the absence of a generally accepted climatic theory and fuller understanding of the physical linkages involved in changing climates, the indicated empirical correlations must be assumed to represent cause-and-effect relationships.  Enough records from different latitudes are assumed to published datings of the presented records (by Potassium/Argon, Ionium/Uranium, fission-track, magnetism, radiocarbon, archaeology, tree rings and historical accounts) are assumed to be sufficiently accurate for valid cross-correlation with the theoretical timings of the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model.  It is important to note that similar qualifications relate to the prevailing climate model.

With these caveats in mind, I again conclude:

 

 

 

·      Longer-term “Ice Age” changes were out of phase across the Equator and evidently modulated by precessional-insolation trends, which in the Northern Hemisphere are 180^o degrees out of phase with those in the Southern Hemisphere.  The supporting data run counter to the conventional assumption of inter-hemispheric synchrony and parallel glacial records and suggest that major revisions are required in the derived concepts of global atmospheric circulation dynamics and patterns.  Theoretically, there appears to be no reason why, if the Northern Hemisphere glaciers responded directly to summer half-year insolation (the Milankovitch mechanism), the glaciers and associated hydrologic processes in the Southern Hemisphere were not similarly controlled by the opposing summer-insolation trends there.  Interconnected ocean bodies explain why the greater volumes of continental ice in the Northern Hemisphere generally dominated the marine meltwater and glacioeustatic records of both hemispheres.  In contrast, the terrestrial climatic records suggest that the current (nominal) atmospheric circulation barrier between hemispheric air masses created by the oscillating Intertropical Confluence Zone persisted throughout the time of record.

 

·      In contrast to the above longer-term climatic trends, superposed secondary oscillation (those less than several thousands of years in duration) were synchronous across the Equator, and evidently modulated by tidal resonances that were generated essentially simultaneously throughout the global atmosphere.

 

·      The correlation of increased global volcanic activity with warmer/drier epicycles of the Tidal-Resonance Model strongly suggests that tidal stressing of the lithosphere played a triggering role in volcanic eruptions and minimizes the importance of transitory cooling (and local warming) by volcanic ejecta as a causal factor in longer-term climate changes.  To predict local volcanic events solely by tidal intensity, however, is highly uncertain because of the presumed triggering mechanism that requires endogenetic processes near threshold conditions.

 

·      The Solar-Insolation/tidal-Resonance Model appears to satisfy temporal and spatial similarities and differences in paleoclimatic records not explained by other climate models.  For example, based on their dating of the Devils Hole speleothem record, Wingard et al (1992) question the validity of the Milankovitch orbital mechanism (as conventionally defined by Martinson et al 1987) as a modulator of global Ice Age climate.  However, as shown in Figure 25, the apparent temporal discrepancy between their chronology and theory disappears when correlated, not with upper latitude insolation, but with that of the local mid-latitude insolation record.  Researchers have questioned or supported the validity of the Uranium/Thorium ages used in the Devils Hole chronology (Shackleton 1994; Ludwig et al 1993), the use of marine terminator ages for correlations with the terrestrial record (Emiliani 1993), and most recently, in keeping with the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model, have suggested resolution of the discrepancy by precessional solar-insolation controls that temporally vary with latitude (Crowley 1994; Shaffer et al 1996).

 

·      The Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Model is a viable scientific hypothesis in that it remains empirically testable by continued cyclical analyses of scores of other high-resolution paleoclimatic records available in the extensive international literature.  Further testing should concentrate on the distribution of records improving uniformity of global coverage – particularly in upper latitudes to satisfy dominant Obliquity controls and along the Equator to satisfy past displacements of the Caloric Equator and associated Intertropical Convergence Zone.  These longer-term Equatorial displacements, along with changing insolation gradients (Figures 10 and 24), are potentially important mechanisms for driving or modulating seasonal atmospheric circulation patterns in the two hemispheres.

 

·      When sufficient supporting data are accumulated, it will be possible to significantly improve (within limits of sampling interval and dating resolution) the dating and correlation of secondary cycles by fine-tuning to the theoretical tidal-resonance model.  This model is primarily built on the celestial-mechanics calculations of Pettersson (1914) as cyclically extended by Stacey (1963, 1967) and continues to provide a best fit for the paleoclimatic records presented in this and previous papers.  However, other researchers have calculated somewhat different timings for maximum tidal forces, and additional celestial mechanics analyses of tidal force change are required to satisfy the general validity of current calculations, and to define the higher frequency components of planetary perturbations

 

.

I acknowledge the stimulation of conversations with numerous attendees at the past five PACLIM workshops as well as the interchange of research data with some.  The recent generous release for my analyses of time-series indices by Vera Markgraf, Wallace Woolfenden, and Teh-Lung Ku is particularly appreciated, as are comments by Eric Karlstrom, Vera Markgraf, Teh-Lung Ku, and Wallace Woolfenden on an early draft.  All errors in this paper remain my own.  I also acknowledge the contribution of my wife, Carol Ann, who insists that I should write so that she can understand. 

 

In my 1997 acknowledgements, Kritiof Fryxell should read Fritiof Fryxell (an outstanding college professor and friend who was responsible for directing me and scores of other students into the field of geology).

 

 

 

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